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The Nottingham Prognostic Index: 5-year and 10-year survival data for all-cause survival within a screened population


The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) is an accepted prognostication tool in the management of breast cancers. The latest overall 5-year and 10-year breast cancer survival has been reported to be 85% [1] and 77% [2]. We applied the NPI to breast cancers diagnosed within Breast Test Wales and present survival data in each NPI category.


All women with screen-detected and interval cancers having had screening between 1998 and 2001 were included. The NPI for each cancer was calculated with the size, nodal status and grade of the primary tumour. Survival data (all cause) was calculated after 10 years of follow-up.


In the 3-year screening period, 199,082 women were screened. A total of 1,712 cancers were diagnosed. In total, 1,546 had data available for calculating the NPI. The overall 5-year and 10-year survival was 94% and 82%. See Table 1.

Table 1


The overall 5-year and 10-year survival (all cause) has improved even when compared with specific breast cancer survival of recent published data. Our data provide a reference for updating all-cause survival of women diagnosed with breast cancers within a screened population.


  1. Office for National Statistics: Statistical Bulletin: Cancer Survival in England: Patients Diagnosed 2005-2009 and Followed up to 2010-2011. 2011, London: Office for National Statistics

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  2. Coleman MP, et al: Cancer survival in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and the UK, 1995-2007 (the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership): an analysis of population-based cancer registry data. The Lancet. 2010, 377: 127-138.

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Fong, Y., Evans, J., Brookes, D. et al. The Nottingham Prognostic Index: 5-year and 10-year survival data for all-cause survival within a screened population. Breast Cancer Res 14 (Suppl 1), P19 (2012).

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