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Table 2 Risk of breast cancer (95% CI) over time in women receiving estrogen-only (CEE) or estrogen (CEE) plus progestin (MPA) menopausal hormone treatment (MHT) in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) study

From: Progesterone from ovulatory menstrual cycles is an important cause of breast cancer

Study

Overall BC risk

Cumulative BC risk

Statistical analysis

WHI CEE

(Anderson 2004) [117]

Mean FU 6.8 yr

Overall

HR 0.77 (0.57–1.06)

Cumulative Hazard (8 yr)

HR 0.77 (0.59–1.01)

HR (adjusted) vs Placebo

WHI CEE

(Chlebowski 2020) [118]

Median FU 16.2 yr

 

Cumulative Hazard (22 yr)

HR 0.78 (0.65–0.93)

P = 0.005 versus placebo

WHI CEE/MPA

(Rossouw 2002) [65]

Mean FU 5.2 yr

Overall

HR 1.26 (0.83–1.92)

Subgroup FU ≥ 10 yr

HR 1.81 (0.60–5.43)

HR (adjusted) versus Placebo

Z score for trend 2.56

WHI CEE/MPA

(Hodis 2018) [66]

Mean FU 5.6 yr

HT naïve patients (75% of cohort)

HR 1.02 (0.77–1.36)*

Subgroup with prior HT

HR 1.96 (1.17–3.27)

HR versus Placebo

Difference naïve vs prior HT: P = 0.027

WHI CEE/MPA

(Chlebowski 2020) [118]

Median FU 18.9 yr

 

Cumulative Hazard (22 yr)

HR 1.28 (1.13–1.45)

P < 0.001 versus placebo

Study

BC mortality

  

WHI CEE

(Manson 2017) [68]

Cumulative FU 18 yr

Overall

HR 0.55 (0.33–0.92)

 

P = 0.02 versus placebo

WHI CEE/MPA

(Manson 2017) [68]

Cumulative FU 18 yr

Overall

HR 1.44 (0.97–2.15)

 

HR (adjusted) versus Placebo

  1. CEE conjugated equine estrogens, CI confidence interval, FU follow-up, HR hazard ratio, MPA medroxyprogesterone acetate, WHI Women’s Health Initiative, yr years
  2. *Comment authors: an increased risk of de novo development of breast cancer during the mean 5.6 years of randomized treatment in the WHI CEE/MPA trial is biologically implausible (Santen [59])