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Table 3 Expected and observed number of breast cancer in test subcohort of China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) and Shanghai Women’s Health Study (SWHS)

From: Development and external validation of a breast cancer absolute risk prediction model in Chinese population

 

Test subcohort of CKB

SWHS

E

O

E/O (95% CI)

E

O

E/O (95% CI)

Overall

760

751

1.01 (0.94–1.09)

1320

1409

0.94 (0.89–0.99)

Age at enrollment, years

 < 50

372

357

1.04 (0.94–1.16)

735

688

1.07 (0.99–1.15)

 50–59

277

256

1.08 (0.96–1.23)

377

394

0.96 (0.87–1.06)

 ≥ 60

111

138

0.81 (0.68–0.96)

208

327

0.64 (0.57–0.71)

Residence

 Rural

351

267

1.31 (1.17–1.49)

--

--

--

 Urban

409

484

0.85 (0.77–0.93)

1320

1409

0.94 (0.89–0.99)

Highest education

 Primary school or lower

333

299

1.11 (0.99–1.25)

143

195

0.73 (0.64–0.85)

 Middle school

218

212

1.03 (0.90–1.18)

487

503

0.97 (0.89–1.06)

 High school or higher

209

240

0.87 (0.77–0.99)

690

711

0.97 (0.90–1.05)

BMI, kg/m2

 < 18.5

21

17

1.21 (0.76–2.08)

34

38

0.90 (0.66–1.27)

 18.5–23.9

340

326

1.04 (0.94–1.17)

627

660

0.95 (0.88–1.03)

 24.0–27.9

282

282

1.00 (0.89–1.13)

477

512

0.93 (0.85–1.02)

 ≥ 28

117

126

0.93 (0.78–1.12)

181

199

0.91 (0.79–1.05)

Height, cm

 < 150.2

139

122

1.14 (0.96–1.38)

85

119

0.71 (0.59–0.86)

 150.2–154.1

172

151

1.14 (0.97–1.35)

185

199

0.93 (0.81–1.07)

 154.2–158.1

204

217

0.94 (0.82–1.08)

360

387

0.93 (0.84–1.03)

 ≥ 158.2

245

261

0.94 (0.83–1.06)

690

704

0.98 (0.91–1.06)

No. of first-degree relatives diagnosed with overall cancer

 0

607

573

1.06 (0.98–1.15)

926

1023

0.91 (0.85–0.96)

 1

126

144

0.87 (0.74–1.04)

316

329

0.96 (0.86–1.07)

 ≥ 2

27

34

0.80 (0.57–1.16)

77

57

1.35 (1.04–1.78)

No. of live birth

 Nulliparous

14

12

1.17 (0.67–2.26)

52

58

0.89 (0.69–1.18)

 1

340

353

0.96 (0.87–1.07)

852

822

1.04 (0.97–1.11)

 ≥2

406

386

1.05 (0.95–1.17)

416

529

0.79 (0.72–0.86)

Age at menarche, years

 < 12

54

60

0.90 (0.70–1.19)

118

105

1.12 (0.93–1.37)

 13–14

244

266

0.92 (0.81–1.04)

556

567

0.98 (0.90–1.07)

 15–16

279

275

1.01 (0.90–1.15)

481

553

0.87 (0.80–0.95)

 ≥ 17

183

150

1.22 (1.04–1.45)

164

184

0.89 (0.77–1.04)

  1. Abbreviations: BMI body mass index, PY person-year, RR relative risk, CI confidence interval, E expected number of cases, O observed number of cases, -- not applicable