Table 1 Outcomes for three DCIS submodels with and without regression during 1975–2015 for women aged 30–79 years
From: Modeling the natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ based on population data
Df | 1a noReg | 1b wReg | 2a noReg | 2b wReg | 3a noReg | 3b wReg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goodness-of-fit Deviance (observed-estimated)^2 | ||||||||
DCIS deviance (p value*) | Model D | 40 | 665 (0.98) | 1182 (0.82) | 1242 (0.79) | 2168 (0.15) | 1307 (0.77) | 1121 (0.89) |
Model E | 40 | 1505 (0.18) | 2071 (0.004) | 698 (0.95) | 926 (0.81) | 1637 (0.12) | 1064 (0.56) | |
IBC deviance (p value*) | Model D | 40 | 2734 (1.00) | 2499 (1.00) | 3406 (1.00) | 2585 (1.00) | 3116 (1.00) | 3527 (1.00) |
Model E | 40 | 3183 (1.00) | 4386 (0.98) | 6071 (0.86) | 5388 (0.95) | 5921 (0.80) | 2510 (1.00) | |
Mean sojourn time | ||||||||
MST of preclinical screen-detectable DCIS before progressing to preclinical IBC | Model D | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |
Model E | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | ||
MST of preclinical screen-detectable DCIS before progressing to clinical DCIS | Model D | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |
Model E | 3.9 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 1.4 | ||
MST of preclinical screen-detectable DCIS before regressing | Model D | NA | 1.5 | NA | 1.5 | NA | 1.5 | |
Model E | NA | 4.0 | NA | 1.3 | NA | 0.6 | ||
Overdiagnosis | ||||||||
% DCIS overdiagnosis | Model D | 4.8% | 19.3% | 3.4% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 19.1% | |
Model E | 35.2% | 65.8% | 33.7% | 62.2% | 33.6% | 47.8% | ||
% IBC overdiagnosis | Model D | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | |
Model E | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | ||
% DCIS + IBC overdiagnosis | Model D | 2.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 5.0% | |
Model E | 6.0% | 10.5% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | ||