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Table 1 Outcomes for three DCIS submodels with and without regression during 1975–2015 for women aged 30–79 years

From: Modeling the natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ based on population data

   Df 1a noReg 1b wReg 2a noReg 2b wReg 3a noReg 3b wReg
Goodness-of-fit Deviance (observed-estimated)^2
 DCIS deviance (p value*) Model D 40 665 (0.98) 1182 (0.82) 1242 (0.79) 2168 (0.15) 1307 (0.77) 1121 (0.89)
Model E 40 1505 (0.18) 2071 (0.004) 698 (0.95) 926 (0.81) 1637 (0.12) 1064 (0.56)
 IBC deviance (p value*) Model D 40 2734 (1.00) 2499 (1.00) 3406 (1.00) 2585 (1.00) 3116 (1.00) 3527 (1.00)
Model E 40 3183 (1.00) 4386 (0.98) 6071 (0.86) 5388 (0.95) 5921 (0.80) 2510 (1.00)
Mean sojourn time
 MST of preclinical screen-detectable DCIS before progressing to preclinical IBC Model D   2.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2
Model E   0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.6
 MST of preclinical screen-detectable DCIS before progressing to clinical DCIS Model D   2.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Model E   3.9 3.1 4.5 0.9 7.7 1.4
 MST of preclinical screen-detectable DCIS before regressing Model D   NA 1.5 NA 1.5 NA 1.5
Model E   NA 4.0 NA 1.3 NA 0.6
Overdiagnosis
 % DCIS overdiagnosis Model D   4.8% 19.3% 3.4% 13.3% 3.1% 19.1%
Model E   35.2% 65.8% 33.7% 62.2% 33.6% 47.8%
 % IBC overdiagnosis Model D   2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
Model E   1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%
 % DCIS + IBC overdiagnosis Model D   2.7% 5.1% 2.5% 4.2% 2.5% 5.0%
Model E   6.0% 10.5% 5.8% 9.7% 6.7% 8.6%
  1. DCIS ductal carcinoma in situ, IBC invasive breast cancer, NA not available, df degree of freedom, noReg model without DCIS regression, wReg model with DCIS regression
  2. *p values from chi-square tests; mean sojourn times are expressed in number of years