Fig. 1

The latent four-state Markov model and the observed states. The possible latent state transition is denoted by arrows, and the probability of being detected in the observed state is denoted by dashed arrows. Abbreviations: BC breast cancer, PCDP preclinical screen-detectable phase, S sensitivity, λ12(t) the transition rate from state 1 to state 2 at time t, λ23(t) the transition rate from state 2 to state 3 at time t, λ14(t) the transition rate from state 1 to state 4 at time t