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Table 4 Observed and predicted breast cancer specific mortality at ten years in combined validation data sets by estrogen receptor status, age at diagnosis, tumour size, nodes positive and tumour grade

From: An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation

  Number cases Number of deaths PREDICT v1 PREDICT v2
PREDICT v1 PREDICT v2 Observed Predicted − observed (%) P-value Predicted − observed (%) P-value
Age at diagnosis
ER negative         
 20–29 92 27.1 25.6 24 13 0.55 6 0.76
 30–39 855 246.8 246.8 226 9 0.18 9 0.18
 40–49 414 130.9 124.4 122 8 0.41 2 0.83
 50–59 165 48.7 46.3 45 8 0.60 3 0.85
 60–69 117 35.9 33.8 28 28 0.19 21 0.32
 70–79 11 3.0 2.8 1 202 0.24 180 0.28
 Total 1654 492.4 479.7 446 11 0.034 8 0.12
ER positive         
 20–29 140 24.3 47.7 34 -28 0.050 40 0.047
 30–39 1633 276.0 316.5 304 -9 0.092 4 0.48
 40–49 1063 203.3 186.0 167 22 0.010 11 0.16
 50–59 467 56.6 51.1 49 16 0.31 4 0.77
 60–69 517 72.9 66.9 72 1 0.91 -7 0.53
 70–79 55 9.9 8.8 7 41 0.36 26 0.54
 Total 3875 643.0 677.1 633 2 0.67 7 0.09
Tumour size (mm)
ER negative         
 0–9 96 11.1 13.3 12 -7 0.79 10 0.73
 10–19 559 108.9 118.9 110 -1 0.92 8 0.41
 20–29 524 149.9 144.3 140 7 0.42 3 0.72
 30–49 354 150.2 131.4 130 16 0.10 1 0.91
 50+ 121 72.9 71.8 54 35 0.027 33 0.04
 Total 1654 493.0 479.7 446 11 0.034 8 0.12
ER positive         
 0–9 352 20.2 17.5 27 -25 0.13 -35 0.024
 10–19 1428 130.7 142.2 151 -13 0.076 -6 0.46
 20–29 1111 188.6 195.5 192 -2 0.81 2 0.80
 30–49 695 180.7 189.5 165 10 0.24 15 0.07
 50+ 289 123.3 132.3 98 26 0.023 35 0.00
 Total 3875 643.7 677.1 633 2 0.67 7 0.09
Nodes positive
ER negative         
 0 937 180.2 165.3 167 8 0.33 -1 0.89
 1 232 64.4 70.0 60 7 0.58 17 0.23
 2–4 300 127.8 132.1 117 9 0.34 13 0.19
 5–9 101 58.9 57.2 55 7 0.61 4 0.77
 10+ 84 61.7 55.1 47 31 0.062 17 0.28
 Total 1654 493.0 479.7 446 11 0.034 8 0.12
ER positive         
 0 2,085 169.0 190.6 188 -10 0.14 1 0.85
 1 675 97.8 109.1 100 -2 0.83 9 0.39
 2–4 734 187.8 187.5 181 4 0.62 4 0.63
 5–9 245 109.6 109.5 94 17 0.14 17 0.14
 10+ 136 79.5 80.3 70 14 0.29 15 0.25
 Total 3875 643.7 677.1 633 2 0.67 7 0.09
Grade
ER negative         
 1 44 6.2 7.3 7 -12 0.74 4 0.91
 2 183 41.7 45.6 39 7 0.68 17 0.33
 3 1427 445.1 426.8 400 11 0.033 7 0.19
 Total 1654 493.0 479.7 446 11 0.034 8 0.12
ER positive         
 1 658 29.4 31.4 27 9 0.66 16 0.43
 2 1730 212.1 230.8 219 -3 0.64 5 0.44
 3 1487 402.2 414.9 387 4 0.45 7 0.17
 Total 3875 643.7 677.1 633 2 0.67 7 0.09