Number cases | Number of deaths | PREDICT v1 | PREDICT v2 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PREDICT v1 | PREDICT v2 | Observed | Predicted − observed (%) | P-value | Predicted − observed (%) | P-value | ||
Age at diagnosis | ||||||||
ER negative | ||||||||
20–29 | 92 | 27.1 | 25.6 | 24 | 13 | 0.55 | 6 | 0.76 |
30–39 | 855 | 246.8 | 246.8 | 226 | 9 | 0.18 | 9 | 0.18 |
40–49 | 414 | 130.9 | 124.4 | 122 | 8 | 0.41 | 2 | 0.83 |
50–59 | 165 | 48.7 | 46.3 | 45 | 8 | 0.60 | 3 | 0.85 |
60–69 | 117 | 35.9 | 33.8 | 28 | 28 | 0.19 | 21 | 0.32 |
70–79 | 11 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1 | 202 | 0.24 | 180 | 0.28 |
Total | 1654 | 492.4 | 479.7 | 446 | 11 | 0.034 | 8 | 0.12 |
ER positive | ||||||||
20–29 | 140 | 24.3 | 47.7 | 34 | -28 | 0.050 | 40 | 0.047 |
30–39 | 1633 | 276.0 | 316.5 | 304 | -9 | 0.092 | 4 | 0.48 |
40–49 | 1063 | 203.3 | 186.0 | 167 | 22 | 0.010 | 11 | 0.16 |
50–59 | 467 | 56.6 | 51.1 | 49 | 16 | 0.31 | 4 | 0.77 |
60–69 | 517 | 72.9 | 66.9 | 72 | 1 | 0.91 | -7 | 0.53 |
70–79 | 55 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 7 | 41 | 0.36 | 26 | 0.54 |
Total | 3875 | 643.0 | 677.1 | 633 | 2 | 0.67 | 7 | 0.09 |
Tumour size (mm) | ||||||||
ER negative | ||||||||
0–9 | 96 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 12 | -7 | 0.79 | 10 | 0.73 |
10–19 | 559 | 108.9 | 118.9 | 110 | -1 | 0.92 | 8 | 0.41 |
20–29 | 524 | 149.9 | 144.3 | 140 | 7 | 0.42 | 3 | 0.72 |
30–49 | 354 | 150.2 | 131.4 | 130 | 16 | 0.10 | 1 | 0.91 |
50+ | 121 | 72.9 | 71.8 | 54 | 35 | 0.027 | 33 | 0.04 |
Total | 1654 | 493.0 | 479.7 | 446 | 11 | 0.034 | 8 | 0.12 |
ER positive | ||||||||
0–9 | 352 | 20.2 | 17.5 | 27 | -25 | 0.13 | -35 | 0.024 |
10–19 | 1428 | 130.7 | 142.2 | 151 | -13 | 0.076 | -6 | 0.46 |
20–29 | 1111 | 188.6 | 195.5 | 192 | -2 | 0.81 | 2 | 0.80 |
30–49 | 695 | 180.7 | 189.5 | 165 | 10 | 0.24 | 15 | 0.07 |
50+ | 289 | 123.3 | 132.3 | 98 | 26 | 0.023 | 35 | 0.00 |
Total | 3875 | 643.7 | 677.1 | 633 | 2 | 0.67 | 7 | 0.09 |
Nodes positive | ||||||||
ER negative | ||||||||
0 | 937 | 180.2 | 165.3 | 167 | 8 | 0.33 | -1 | 0.89 |
1 | 232 | 64.4 | 70.0 | 60 | 7 | 0.58 | 17 | 0.23 |
2–4 | 300 | 127.8 | 132.1 | 117 | 9 | 0.34 | 13 | 0.19 |
5–9 | 101 | 58.9 | 57.2 | 55 | 7 | 0.61 | 4 | 0.77 |
10+ | 84 | 61.7 | 55.1 | 47 | 31 | 0.062 | 17 | 0.28 |
Total | 1654 | 493.0 | 479.7 | 446 | 11 | 0.034 | 8 | 0.12 |
ER positive | ||||||||
0 | 2,085 | 169.0 | 190.6 | 188 | -10 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.85 |
1 | 675 | 97.8 | 109.1 | 100 | -2 | 0.83 | 9 | 0.39 |
2–4 | 734 | 187.8 | 187.5 | 181 | 4 | 0.62 | 4 | 0.63 |
5–9 | 245 | 109.6 | 109.5 | 94 | 17 | 0.14 | 17 | 0.14 |
10+ | 136 | 79.5 | 80.3 | 70 | 14 | 0.29 | 15 | 0.25 |
Total | 3875 | 643.7 | 677.1 | 633 | 2 | 0.67 | 7 | 0.09 |
Grade | ||||||||
ER negative | ||||||||
1 | 44 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 7 | -12 | 0.74 | 4 | 0.91 |
2 | 183 | 41.7 | 45.6 | 39 | 7 | 0.68 | 17 | 0.33 |
3 | 1427 | 445.1 | 426.8 | 400 | 11 | 0.033 | 7 | 0.19 |
Total | 1654 | 493.0 | 479.7 | 446 | 11 | 0.034 | 8 | 0.12 |
ER positive | ||||||||
1 | 658 | 29.4 | 31.4 | 27 | 9 | 0.66 | 16 | 0.43 |
2 | 1730 | 212.1 | 230.8 | 219 | -3 | 0.64 | 5 | 0.44 |
3 | 1487 | 402.2 | 414.9 | 387 | 4 | 0.45 | 7 | 0.17 |
Total | 3875 | 643.7 | 677.1 | 633 | 2 | 0.67 | 7 | 0.09 |