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Table 5 Ratios of expected (E) to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 10 years from screening

From: Validation of the Gail model for predicting individual breast cancer risk in a prospective nationwide study of 28,104 Singapore women

Risk factors

Based on Gail model

(Caucasian)

Based on Matsuno AABCS model

(Chinese-American and other Asian-American)

 

O

E

E/O

95% CI

for E/O

O

E

E/O

95% CI

for E/O

Total

409

758.18

1.85

(1.68, 2.04)

409

404.70

0.99

(0.90, 1.09)

Age at menarche, years

        

   ≥14

226

477.32

2.11

(1.85, 2.41)

226

253.58

1.12

(0.98, 1.28)

   12-13

161

252.42

1.57

(1.34, 1.83)

161

136.16

0.85

(0.72, 0.99)

   < 12

22

28.44

1.29

(0.85, 1.96)

22

14.96

0.68

(0.45, 1.03)

 

χ2 = 166.89, P < 0.001

χ2 = 10.84, P = 0.004

Any breast biopsy

Age at screening: ≥50 years

        

   No

370

706.46

1.91

(1.72, 2.11)

370

366.38

0.99

(0.89, 1.10)

   Yes

39

51.72

1.33

(0.97, 1.82)

39

38.32

0.98

(0.72, 1.34)

 

χ2 = 163.37, P < 0.001

χ2 = 0.05, P = 0.827

Number of affected first-degree relatives

Age at first live birth: < 20 years

        

   0

48

93.42

1.95

(1.47, 2.58)

48

41.62

0.87

(0.65, 1.15)

   1

2

4.59

2.30

(0.57, 9.18)

2

1.76

0.88

(0.22, 3.52)

   > 1

0

0.13

-

-

0

0.02

-

-

Number of affected first-degree relatives

Age at first live birth: 20-24 years

        

   0

113

246.74

2.18

(1.82, 2.63)

113

123.47

1.09

(0.91, 1.31)

   1

9

10.97

1.22

(0.63, 2.34)

9

5.84

0.65

(0.34, 1.25)

   > 1

2

0.62

0.31

(0.08, 1.24)

2

0.15

0.08

(0.02, 0.30)

Number of affected first-degree relatives

Age at first live birth: 25-29 years or nulliparous

        

   0

156

269.37

1.73

(1.48, 2.02)

156

150.21

0.96

(0.82, 1.13)

   1

13

15.78

1.21

(0.70, 2.09)

13

11.19

0.86

(0.50, 1.48)

   > 1

0

0.36

-

-

0

0.14

-

-

Number of affected first-degree relatives

Age at first live birth: > 30 years

        

   0

62

110.49

1.78

(1.39, 2.29)

62

65.18

1.05

(0.82, 1.35)

   1

3

5.61

1.87

(0.60, 5.80)

3

5.04

1.68

(0.54, 5.21)

   > 1

1

0.09

0.09

(0.01, 0.64)

1

0.08

0.08

(0.01, 0.57)

 

χ2 = 179.85, P < 0.001

χ2 = 38.66, P < 0.001

  1. AABCS, Asian American Breast Cancer Study model; CI, confidence interval; E, expected number of breast cancer cases; E/O, ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancer cases; O, observed number of breast cancer cases.
  2. Ratios of expected (E) numbers of invasive breast cancers using 10-year predicted risk based on Gail model and Matsuno model to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 10 years from screening among Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project cohort by risk factors in Gail model
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Breast Cancer Research

ISSN: 1465-542X

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