Table 4 Estimates from formal overdiagnosis modelling, Gothenburg Trial data, ages 39 to 59 years
Quantity | Estimate | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
Incidence (true cases)/1000 (I) | 1.9 | (1.6–2.3) |
Screening test sensitivity (S) | 99.9 | (99.6–100) |
Progression to clinical cancer (λ) | 0.52 | (0.41–0.67) |
Incidence of overdiagnosed cases/1000 (μ) | 0.0034 | (0.0000–0.0238) |
Percent overdiagnosis (first screen) | 4.2 | (0.0–28.8) |
Percent overdiagnosis (second screen) | 0.3 | (0.0–2.0) |
Percent overdiagnosis (third screen) | 0.3 | (0.0–2.0) |