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Table 6 Ratios of expected (E) to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers by age at screening group and 10-year predicted risk quintile group

From: Validation of the Gail model for predicting individual breast cancer risk in a prospective nationwide study of 28,104 Singapore women

 

Based on Gail model

(Caucasian)

Based on Matsuno AABCS model

(Chinese-American and other Asian-American)

 

O

E

E/O

95% CI

for E/O

O

E

E/O

95% CI

for E/O

Total

409

758.18

1.85

(1.68, 2.04)

409

404.70

0.99

(0.90, 1.09)

5-year age at screening group

        

   50-54 years

135

205.49

1.52

(1.29, 1.80)

135

128.96

0.96

(0.81, 1.13)

   55-59 years

168

283.71

1.69

(1.45, 1.96)

168

153.13

0.91

(0.78, 1.06)

   60-64 yearsa

106

268.94

2.54

(2.10, 3.07)

106

122.58

1.16

(0.96, 1.40)

 

χ2 = 170.09, P < 0.001

χ2 = 3.97, P = 0.137

5-year predicted risk groupb

        

   1%-20%

62

107.19

1.73

(1.35, 2.22)

49

49.33

1.01

(0.76, 1.33)

   21%-40%

70

128.26

1.83

(1.45, 2.32)

55

64.54

1.17

(0.90, 1.53)

   41%-60%

60

144.77

2.41

(1.87, 3.11)

82

74.29

0.91

(0.73, 1.12)

   61%-80%

89

163.95

1.84

(1.50, 2.27)

86

88.32

1.03

(0.83, 1.27)

   81%-100%

128

214.00

1.67

(1.41, 1.99)

137

128.21

0.94

(0.79, 1.11)

 

χ2 = 163.98, P < 0.001

χ2 = 2.88, P = 0.579

5-year age at screening group

5-year predicted risk groupb

        

   50-54 years

        

1%-20%

29

56.55

1.95

(1.36, 2.81)

8

11.85

1.48

(0.74, 2.96)

21%-40%

28

38.62

1.38

(0.95, 2.00)

13

13.00

1.00

(0.58, 1.72)

41%-60%

19

37.93

2.00

(1.27, 3.13)

35

24.69

0.71

(0.51, 0.98)

61%-80%

35

39.24

1.12

(0.80, 1.56)

28

32.03

1.14

(0.79, 1.66)

81%-100%

24

33.15

1.38

(0.93, 2.06)

51

47.37

0.93

(0.71, 1.22)

   55-59 years

        

1%-20%

21

32.73

1.56

(1.02, 2.39)

22

17.32

0.79

(0.52, 1.20)

21%-40%

35

65.44

1.87

(1.34, 2.60)

22

19.19

0.87

(0.57, 1.32)

41%-60%

21

29.51

1.41

(0.92, 2.16)

29

29.55

1.02

(0.71, 1.47)

61%-80%

36

78.42

2.18

(1.57, 3.02)

38

35.81

0.94

(0.69, 1.30)

81%-100%

55

77.60

1.41

(1.08, 1.84)

57

51.26

0.90

(0.69, 1.17)

   60-64 yearsa

        

1%-20%

12

17.87

1.49

(0.85, 2.62)

19

20.15

1.06

(0.68, 1.66)

21%-40%

7

24.20

3.46

(1.65, 7.25)

20

32.35

1.62

(1.04, 2.51)

41%-60%

20

77.33

3.87

(2.49, 5.99)

18

20.02

1.11

(0.70, 1.77)

61%-80%

18

46.29

2.57

(1.62, 4.08)

20

20.48

1.02

(0.66, 1.59)

81%-100%

49

103.25

2.11

(1.59, 2.79)

29

29.58

1.02

(0.71, 1.47)

 

χ2 = 181.57, P < 0.001

χ2 = 13.81, P = 0.464

  1. aGroup of 60- to 64-year-olds included some older than 64 years as they were screened in 1996-1997. bBased on ranking of the study cohort by 10-year predicted risk in ascending order. AABCS, Asian American Breast Cancer Study model; CI, confidence interval; E, expected number of breast cancer cases; E/O, ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancer cases; O, observed number of breast cancer cases.
  2. Ratios of expected (E) numbers of invasive breast cancers using 10-year predicted risk based on Gail model and Matsuno model to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 10 years from screening among Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project cohort by age at screening group and 10-year predicted risk quintile group
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Breast Cancer Research

ISSN: 1465-542X

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