Breast cancer risk-assessment models

Breast Cancer Research

Table 1 Known risk factors and their incorporation into existing risk models

	Relative risk at extremes	Gail model	Claus model	BRCAPRO model	Cuzick–Tyrer model	BOADICEA model
Prediction
Amir and colleagues' [27] validation study ratio^a		0.48	0.56	0.49	0.81	Not assessed
95% confidence interval [27]		0.54–0.90	0.59–0.99	0.52–0.80	0.85–1.41	Not assessed
Personal information
Age (20–70 years)	30	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Body mass index	2	No	No	No	Yes	No
Alcohol intake (0–4 units) daily	1.24	No	No	No	No	No
Hormonal/reproductive factors
Age at menarche	2	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
Age at first live birth	3	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
Age at menopause	4	No	No	No	Yes	No
Hormone replacement therapy use	2	No	No	No	Yes	No
Oral contraceptive pill use	1.24	No	No	No	No	No
Breast feeding	0.8	No	No	No	No	No
Plasma oestrogen	5	No	No	No	No	No
Personal breast disease
Breast biopsies	2	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
Atypical ductal hyperplasia	3	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
Lobular carcinoma in situ	4	No	No	No	Yes	No
Breast density	6	No	No	No	No	No
Family history
First-degree relatives	3	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Second-degree relatives	1.5	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Third-degree relatives		No	No	No	No	Yes
Age of onset of breast cancer	3	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Bilateral breast cancer	3	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Ovarian cancer	1.5	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Male breast cancer	3–5	No	No	Yes	No	Yes

BOADICEA = Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm. ^aExpected over observed cancer ratio (all models assessed underestimated cancer occurrence).

ISSN: 1465-542X