Skip to main content

Table 3 Calibration table for predicting 10-year non-breast cancer death and 5-year breast cancer risk

From: A model for predicting both breast cancer risk and non-breast cancer death among women > 55 years old

Predicting 10-year non-breast cancer death

  

NHS development cohort n = 48,102a

NHS validation cohort n = 24,088a

Black Women’s Health Study n = 15,001

Risk groupb

Time (years)

Deaths (%)

Expected survival (using CRR)

Observed survival

Deaths (%)

Expected survival (using CRR)

Observed survival

Expected/observed (E/O)

Deaths (%)

Expected survival (using CRR)

Observed survival

Expected/observed (E/O)

1

5

 

0.99

0.99

 

0.99

0.99

1.00

 

0.99

0.99

1.00

10

251 (2.6)

0.96

0.98

126 (2.7)

0.96

0.98

0.98

74 (2.2)

0.96

0.98

0.98

2

5

 

0.98

0.98

 

0.98

0.98

1.00

 

0.98

0.98

1.00

10

553 (5.8)

0.92

0.95

305 (6.3)

0.93

0.94

0.99

220 (5.2)

0.92

0.95

0.97

3

5

 

0.96

0.97

 

0.96

0.96

1.00

 

0.96

0.97

0.99

10

1133 (11.8)

0.86

0.89

594 (12.2)

0.86

0.89

0.97

284 (8.1)

0.87

0.92

0.95

4

5

 

0.92

0.93

 

0.92

0.94

0.98

 

0.92

0.94

0.98

10

2320 (24.1)

0.75

0.78

1172 (24.5)

0.75

0.77

0.97

423 (18.0)

0.75

0.83

0.90

5

5

 

0.73

0.80

 

0.74

0.80

0.93

 

0.76

0.84

0.90

10

5119 (53.2)

0.47

0.49

2593 (53.1)

0.47

0.49

0.96

591 (40.1)

0.44

0.62

0.71

Predicting 5-year invasive breast cancer risk

  

NHS development cohort n = 37,628a

NHS validation cohort n = 18,980a

Black Women’s Health Study n = 13,247

Risk group

Time (years)

Invasive breast cancers (%)

Expected survival (using CRR)

Observed survival

Invasive breast cancers (%)

Expected survival (using CRR)

Observed survival

Expected/observed (E/O)

Invasive breast cancers (%)

Expected survival (using CRR)

Observed survival

Expected/observed (E/O)

1

5

80 (1.1)

0.99

0.99

40 (1.1)

0.99

0.99

1.00

40 (1.2)

0.99

0.99

1.00

2

5

122 (1.6)

0.98

0.99

52 (1.3)

0.98

0.99

0.99

40 (1.5)

0.98

0.99

0.99

3

5

112 (1.5)

0.98

0.99

74 (1.9)

0.98

0.98

1.00

39 (1.6)

0.98

0.98

1.00

4

5

150 (2.0)

0.98

0.98

76 (2.1)

0.98

0.98

1.00

50 (2.0)

0.98

0.98

1.00

5

5

248 (3.3)

0.96

0.97

123 (3.3)

0.97

0.97

1.00

54 (2.4)

0.97

0.98

0.99

  1. Calibration of the model in predicting non-BC death was assessed by estimating the ratio of the expected survival (1-CIF for non-BC death from our CRR model) to the observed survival (1-the observed CIF computed using the nonparametric estimation of CIF) at 5 and 10 years within risk quintiles. Similar methods were used to test calibration of the model in predicting BC
  2. CRR = Competing risk regression, CIF = cumulative incidence function, NHS = Nurses’ Health Study, BWHS = Black Women’s Health Study
  3. aThese analyses include women with complete data. When predicting breast cancer, women with a history of cancer were further excluded
  4. bRisk groups were defined by quintiles of the NHS prognostic index for each outcome which was calculated using NHS development cohort regression coefficients