Table 2 Final model for predicting non-breast cancer death in the NHS cohorts and in BWHS

N for that outcome

9376

4790

1592

Factors in our final model

Age (per year increase)

1.11

< 0.001

1.11

< 0.001

1.10

< 0.001

Highest self-reported Body Mass Index (BMI) in past 10 years: < 20 kg/m²

1.63

< 0.001

1.57

< 0.001

2.71

< 0.001

 20–22.4 kg/m²

1.15

< 0.001

1.10

0.08

1.21

0.25

 22.4–24.9 kg/m²

1

–

1

–

1

–

 25–29.9 kg/m²

0.91

0.003

0.87

< 0.001

0.85

0.09

 30–34.9 kg/m²

0.88

< 0.001

0.80

< 0.001

0.87

0.17

 35–39.9 kg/m²

0.91

0.07

0.93

0.28

0.98

0.87

 40+ kg/m²

1.10

0.10

0.97

0.70

1.28

0.03

Average alcohol use per day (highest average use in past 10 years): None

1

–

1

–

1

–

 1–4.9 g/day

0.86

< 0.001

0.94

0.13

0.92

0.20

 5–14.9 g/day

0.91

0.004

0.90

0.02

0.97

0.71

 15+ g/day

1.04

0.24

0.96

0.43

1.28

0.004

Cigarette use: Never

1

–

1

–

1

–

 Current

2.46

< 0.001

2.34

< 0.001

2.66

< 0.001

 Past

1.35

< 0.001

1.30

< 0.001

1.39

< 0.001

Limited from walking several blocks:

 Not at all

1

–

1

–

–

–

 A little/a lot

1.58

< 0.001

1.53

< 0.001

–

–

Limited in bathing/dressing oneself:

 Not at all

1

–

1

–

–

–

 A little or a lot

1.47

< 0.001

1.48

< 0.001

-

–

Walking pace: Unable to walk

1.42

< 0.001

1.40

< 0.001

-

–

 Slow or average (< 3 mph)

1

–

1

–

1

–

 Brisk/very brisk (≥ 3 mph)

0.69

< 0.001

0.74

< 0.001

0.72

< 0.001

High Blood pressure

1.15

< 0.001

1.21

< 0.001

1.15

0.04

Depression

1.17

< 0.001

1.16

< 0.001

1.10

0.14

Hip fracture

1.31

< 0.001

1.31

< 0.001

1.29

0.23

Parkinson’s disease

2.35

< 0.001

2.32

< 0.001

4.09

< 0.001

Myocardial infarction

1.27

< 0.001

1.16

0.005

1.10

0.32

Congestive heart failure

1.76

< 0.001

1.97

< 0.001

2.12

< 0.001

Stroke/transient ischemic attack

1.19

< 0.001

1.24

< 0.001

1.58

< 0.001

Emphysema/Asthma

1.29

< 0.001

1.27

< 0.001

1.03

0.68

Diabetes

1.36

< 0.001

1.31

< 0.001

1.46

< 0.001

Dementia

3.07

< 0.001

2.88

< 0.001

1.79

0.04

Kidney disease

1.28

0.07

1.28

0.22

2.31

< 0.001

Cancer*

1.45

< 0.001

1.44

< 0.001

2.60

< 0.001

Age at menopause (years), < 45

1.01

0.74

0.95

0.39

1.00

0.96

 45–49

1

–

1

–

1

–

 50–54

0.93

0.004

0.91

0.007

0.91

0.15

 55+

0.87

0.002

0.86

0.02

0.97

0.72

Mammogram in past 2 years|| No

1

–

1

–

1

–

 Yes

0.75

< 0.001

0.74

< 0.001

0.61

< 0.001

C-index (95% CI)

0.795 (0.791–0.800)

0.790 (0.784–0.796)

0.780 (0.768–0.791)

C-index (95% CI) when using risk factor regression coefficients from the NHS development cohort in the NHS and BWHS validation cohorts

–

0.790 (0.784–0.796)

0.768 (0.757–0.780)