Fig. 1

Analysis of predictive performance of PredictCBC-2.0A in leave-one-study-out cross-validation. Discrimination was assessed by a time-dependent AUC at 5 and 10 years (panel A and B, respectively). Calibration accuracy was measured with observed/expected (O/E) ratio at 5 and 10 years (panel C and D, respectively). The black squares indicate the estimated accuracy of a model built using all remaining studies or geographic areas. The black horizontal lines indicate the corresponding 95% confidence intervals of the estimated accuracy (interval whiskers). The black diamonds indicate the mean with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals of the predictive accuracy, and the dashed horizontal lines indicate the corresponding 95% prediction intervals