Table 2 Performance of CVD risk models by end-point and statistical method, KPNC Stage I-III breast cancers, diagnosed 2000–2010
Risk Model (model type) | Evaluation time-point (years) | Events | Validation Sample Size* (naïve) | AUC (95% CI) (naïve) | AUC (95% CI) (with censoring) | O/EO ratio (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Outcome: Hard CHD (fatal and non-fatal: Myocardial Infarction (MI), coronary insufficiency) | ||||||
Framingham 2000 (Weibull AFT model) | 2 | 304 | 10,211 | 0.70 (0.67, 0.73) | 0.63 (0.61, 0.66) | 0.92 (0.83, 1.03) |
4 | 596 | 9529 | 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) | 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) | 0.85 (0.78, 0.92) | |
Framingham 2001 (Proportional Hazards (PH)Model) | 5 | 699 | 8236 | 0.71 (0.69, 0.73) | 0.70 (0.69, 0.73) | 1.98 (1.83, 2.12) |
10 | 952 | 1976 | 0.64 (0.62, 0.67) | 0.65 (0.62, 0.67) | 1.06 (0.99, 1.13) | |
Framingham recalibrated (PH model) | 5 | 699 | 8236 | 0.78 (0.76, 0.80) | 0.77 (0.75, 0.79) | 0.31 (0.29, 0.34) |
10 | 952 | 1976 | 0.76 (0.74, 0.79) | 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) | 0.29 (0.27, 0.31) | |
CORE (sub-distribution hazards model) | 5 | 692 | 8180 | 0.75 (0.73, 0.77) | 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) | 3.30 (3.07, 3.56) |
10 | 943 | 1963 | 0.75 (0.73, 0.78) | 0.73 (0.71, 0.76) | 1.72 (1.61, 1.83) | |
Outcome: Earliest of Any (MI, coronary death, coronary insufficiency, angina, stroke, peripheral artery disease) | ||||||
Framingham 2008 (PH Model) | 10 | 3734 | 4478 | 0.66 (0.64, 0.68) | 0.71 (0.70, 0.73) | 3.53 (3.42, 3.64) |
Outcome: CVD death only | ||||||
SCORE (Weibull AFT model) | 10 | 184 | 1300 | 0.73 (0.69, 0.78) | 0.74 (0.70, 0.78) | 0.44 (0.38, 0.51) |
SCORE OP (PH model) | 10 | 184 | 1300 | 0.76 (0.72, 0.80) | 0.76 (0.73, 0.81) | 0.22 (0.19, 0.25) |