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Table 2 Performance of CVD risk models by end-point and statistical method, KPNC Stage I-III breast cancers, diagnosed 2000–2010

From: Modeling risks of cardiovascular and cancer mortality following a diagnosis of loco-regional breast cancer

Risk Model
(model type)
Evaluation
time-point (years)
Events Validation
Sample
Size* (naïve)
AUC
(95% CI)
(naïve)
AUC
(95% CI) (with
censoring)
O/EO ratio
(95% CI)
Outcome: Hard CHD (fatal and non-fatal: Myocardial Infarction (MI), coronary insufficiency)
Framingham
2000
(Weibull AFT model)
2 304 10,211 0.70
(0.67, 0.73)
0.63
(0.61, 0.66)
0.92
(0.83, 1.03)
4 596 9529 0.74
(0.72, 0.76)
0.74
(0.72, 0.76)
0.85
(0.78, 0.92)
Framingham
2001 (Proportional Hazards (PH)Model)
5 699 8236 0.71
(0.69, 0.73)
0.70
(0.69, 0.73)
1.98
(1.83, 2.12)
10 952 1976 0.64
(0.62, 0.67)
0.65
(0.62, 0.67)
1.06
(0.99, 1.13)
Framingham recalibrated
(PH model)
5 699 8236 0.78
(0.76, 0.80)
0.77
(0.75, 0.79)
0.31
(0.29, 0.34)
10 952 1976 0.76
(0.74, 0.79)
0.74
(0.72, 0.76)
0.29
(0.27, 0.31)
CORE
(sub-distribution hazards model)
5 692 8180 0.75
(0.73, 0.77)
0.74
(0.72, 0.76)
3.30
(3.07, 3.56)
10 943 1963 0.75
(0.73, 0.78)
0.73
(0.71, 0.76)
1.72
(1.61, 1.83)
Outcome: Earliest of Any
(MI, coronary death, coronary insufficiency, angina, stroke, peripheral artery disease)
Framingham
2008 (PH Model)
10 3734 4478 0.66
(0.64, 0.68)
0.71
(0.70, 0.73)
3.53
(3.42, 3.64)
Outcome: CVD death only
SCORE
(Weibull AFT model)
10 184 1300 0.73
(0.69, 0.78)
0.74
(0.70, 0.78)
0.44
(0.38, 0.51)
SCORE OP
(PH model)
10 184 1300 0.76
(0.72, 0.80)
0.76
(0.73, 0.81)
0.22
(0.19, 0.25)
  1. *denotes complete risk factor information and required follow-up time for model evaluation