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Fig. 2 | Breast Cancer Research

Fig. 2

From: Comparative validation of the BOADICEA and Tyrer-Cuzick breast cancer risk models incorporating classical risk factors and polygenic risk in a population-based prospective cohort of women of European ancestry

Fig. 2

Calibration and discrimination of 5-year risk predictions of breast cancer for women aged 50 years or older in the nested case-control sample of the Generations Study cohort with risk categories based on deciles of predicted 5-year absolute risk. Validation results are shown for the original BOADICEA model that incorporate pedigree level family history information, its two extensions: (i) incorporating the recently developed PRS based on 313 common germline variants to the original model and (ii) incorporating the 313-variant PRS and reproductive and lifestyle factors to the original model, and the IBIS model (Version 8.0) after including the 313-variant PRS. Estimates and 95% CI of the calibration slope and intercept are reported based on a linear regression of the decile-specific observed proportion of cases within 5 years and the average of the predicted 5-year absolute risk. AUC = area under the curve, c2 =chi-square goodness-of-fit test, BOADICEA = Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm, IBIS = International Breast Cancer Intervention Study, PRS = polygenic risk score, E/O = expected to observed number of cases, CI = confidence interval

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