Skip to main content

Table 3 Maximum-likelihood estimates and 95% confidence intervals based on the non-homogeneous and the homogeneous multi-state model

From: Overdiagnosis in the population-based organized breast cancer screening program estimated by a non-homogeneous multi-state model: a cohort study using individual data with long-term follow-up

Description Parameter MLE (95% CI)
Non-homogeneous model Homogeneous model
40–49 years 50–59 years 60–69 yearsa
Transition rate from free of BC to progressive PCDP λ12(t) 0.00276 (0.00269, 0.00283) 0.00381 (0.00371, 0.00390) 0.00306 (0.00301, 0.00311)
Transition rate from progressive PCDP to CP λ23(t) 0.385 (0.342, 0.428) 0.464 (0.436, 0.492) 0.284 (0.267, 0.301) 0.418 (0.400, 0.436)
Ratio of λ14(t) to λ12(t) r 0.00182 (0, 0.00523) 9.999×10−4 (0, 3.432×10−3)
Sensitivity S 0.880 (0.852, 0.909) 0.924 (0.901, 0.947)
-2*log(likelihood) NA 198,024 198,878
Mean sojourn time (year) \( \frac{1}{\lambda_{23}(t)} \) 2.60 (2.31, 2.89) 2.16 (2.03, 2.29) 3.52 (3.31, 3.73) 2.39 (2.29, 2.49)
  1. Abbreviations: BC breast cancer, CI confidence interval, CP clinical phase, MLE maximum likelihood estimate, MST mean sojourn time, NA not applicable, PCDP preclinical screen-detectable phase
  2. Likelihood ratio test of the non-homogeneous versus the homogeneous model: \( {\chi}_{(3)}^2 \) = 854, P <0.001
  3. a9.65% of the women were invited to screening at age 70–74