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Table 4 External validation of the estrogen receptor (ER)-specific risk prediction models and the Gail model in women from the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) study

From: Risk prediction for estrogen receptor-specific breast cancers in two large prospective cohorts

  ER-specific risk prediction models ModelGail
ModelER+ ModelER−
C-statistic (95% CI)
 Overall 0.59 (0.58–0.60) 0.53 (0.50–0.57) 0.57 (0.56–0.59)
 By ER status
  ER+ 0.58 (0.57–0.60)
  ER− 0.53 (0.50–0.57)
Ratio of observed–expected (95% CI) 1.09 (1.03–1.14) 0.94 (0.82–1.06) 0.78 (0.73–0.82)