Skip to main content

Table 3 Observed and predicted breast cancer specific mortality at ten years in model fitting data set by estrogen receptor status, age at diagnosis, tumour size, nodes positive and tumour grade

From: An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation

  Number cases Number of deaths PREDICT v1 PREDICT v2
PREDICT v1 PREDICT v2 Observed Predicted − observed (%) P-value Predicted − observed (%) P-value
Age at diagnosis
ER negative         
 20–29 11 3.6 3.7 4 -11 0.81 -7 0.88
 30–39 105 32.5 34.5 40 -19 0.19 -14 0.35
 40–49 210 60.8 66.1 60 1 0.92 10 0.45
 50–59 304 88.7 94.7 88 1 0.94 8 0.49
 60–69 200 62.8 64.6 63 0 0.98 3 0.84
 70–79 190 77.9 67.4 78 0 0.99 -14 0.20
 Total 1020 326.3 331.1 333 -2 0.71 -1 0.92
ER positive         
 20–29 12 1.5 3.3 5 -70 0.004 -34 0.35
 30–39 209 38.9 43.1 43 -10 0.51 0 0.99
 40–49 765 108.9 112.3 107 2 0.86 5 0.62
 50–59 1556 171.6 162.8 157 9 0.26 4 0.65
 60–69 1214 157.2 142.5 139 13 0.15 3 0.77
 70–79 962 198.6 162.4 148 34 0.0003 10 0.26
 Total 4718 676.7 626.4 599 13 0.0028 5 0.27
Tumour size (mm)
ER negative         
 0–9 57 6.9 8.8 9 -23 0.43 -2 0.94
 10–19 324 65.6 77.6 73 -10 0.36 6 0.60
 20–29 337 102.3 105.5 108 -5 0.58 -2 0.81
 30–49 218 95.3 86.6 90 6 0.58 -4 0.72
 50+ 84 56.0 52.5 53 6 0.69 -1 0.94
 Total 1020 326.3 331.1 333 -2 0.71 -1 0.92
ER positive         
 0–9 528 19.0 15.7 11 72 0.07 42 0.24
 10–19 1976 145.7 149.0 129 13 0.17 15 0.10
 20–29 1329 221.4 205.9 217 2 0.77 -5 0.44
 30–49 665 194.8 168.1 161 21 0.015 4 0.58
 50+ 220 95.8 87.8 81 18 0.13 8 0.47
 Total 4718 676.7 626.4 599 13 0.0028 5 0.27
Nodes positive
ER negative         
 0 536 103.7 101.6 107 -3 0.75 -5 0.59
 1 150 41.7 48.5 49 -15 0.26 -1 0.95
 2–4 168 71.1 76.8 68 5 0.71 13 0.31
 5–9 92 53.7 53.5 57 -6 0.65 -6 0.63
 10+ 74 56.0 50.5 52 8 0.59 -3 0.84
 Total 1020 326.3 331.1 333 -2 0.71 -1 0.92
ER positive         
 0 2832 182.7 188.4 180 1 0.84 5 0.54
 1 703 87.1 86.7 69 26 0.05 26 0.057
 2–4 713 169.3 146.9 136 25 0.01 8 0.37
 5–9 304 129.8 113.9 122 6 0.49 -7 0.45
 10+ 166 107.7 90.4 92 17 0.13 -2 0.87
 Total 4718 676.7 626.4 599 13 0.0028 5 0.27
Grade
ER negative         
 1 27 4.0 4.9 2.9 38 0.58 70 0.36
 2 240 62.8 69.4 75.8 -17 0.10 -8 0.44
 3 753 259.5 256.7 235.8 10 0.14 9 0.19
 Total 1020 326.3 331.1 314.5 4 0.51 5 0.36
ER positive         
 1 963 34.2 36.2 30 14 0.47 21 0.30
 2 2696 319.2 305.1 296 8 0.19 3 0.60
 3 1059 323.3 285.0 273 18 0.0051 4 0.48
 Total 4718 676.7 626.4 599 13 0.0028 5 0.27