Table 3 Observed and predicted breast cancer specific mortality at ten years in model fitting data set by estrogen receptor status, age at diagnosis, tumour size, nodes positive and tumour grade
Number cases | Number of deaths | PREDICT v1 | PREDICT v2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PREDICT v1 | PREDICT v2 | Observed | Predicted − observed (%) | P-value | Predicted − observed (%) | P-value | ||
Age at diagnosis | ||||||||
ER negative | ||||||||
20–29 | 11 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4 | -11 | 0.81 | -7 | 0.88 |
30–39 | 105 | 32.5 | 34.5 | 40 | -19 | 0.19 | -14 | 0.35 |
40–49 | 210 | 60.8 | 66.1 | 60 | 1 | 0.92 | 10 | 0.45 |
50–59 | 304 | 88.7 | 94.7 | 88 | 1 | 0.94 | 8 | 0.49 |
60–69 | 200 | 62.8 | 64.6 | 63 | 0 | 0.98 | 3 | 0.84 |
70–79 | 190 | 77.9 | 67.4 | 78 | 0 | 0.99 | -14 | 0.20 |
Total | 1020 | 326.3 | 331.1 | 333 | -2 | 0.71 | -1 | 0.92 |
ER positive | ||||||||
20–29 | 12 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 5 | -70 | 0.004 | -34 | 0.35 |
30–39 | 209 | 38.9 | 43.1 | 43 | -10 | 0.51 | 0 | 0.99 |
40–49 | 765 | 108.9 | 112.3 | 107 | 2 | 0.86 | 5 | 0.62 |
50–59 | 1556 | 171.6 | 162.8 | 157 | 9 | 0.26 | 4 | 0.65 |
60–69 | 1214 | 157.2 | 142.5 | 139 | 13 | 0.15 | 3 | 0.77 |
70–79 | 962 | 198.6 | 162.4 | 148 | 34 | 0.0003 | 10 | 0.26 |
Total | 4718 | 676.7 | 626.4 | 599 | 13 | 0.0028 | 5 | 0.27 |
Tumour size (mm) | ||||||||
ER negative | ||||||||
0–9 | 57 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 9 | -23 | 0.43 | -2 | 0.94 |
10–19 | 324 | 65.6 | 77.6 | 73 | -10 | 0.36 | 6 | 0.60 |
20–29 | 337 | 102.3 | 105.5 | 108 | -5 | 0.58 | -2 | 0.81 |
30–49 | 218 | 95.3 | 86.6 | 90 | 6 | 0.58 | -4 | 0.72 |
50+ | 84 | 56.0 | 52.5 | 53 | 6 | 0.69 | -1 | 0.94 |
Total | 1020 | 326.3 | 331.1 | 333 | -2 | 0.71 | -1 | 0.92 |
ER positive | ||||||||
0–9 | 528 | 19.0 | 15.7 | 11 | 72 | 0.07 | 42 | 0.24 |
10–19 | 1976 | 145.7 | 149.0 | 129 | 13 | 0.17 | 15 | 0.10 |
20–29 | 1329 | 221.4 | 205.9 | 217 | 2 | 0.77 | -5 | 0.44 |
30–49 | 665 | 194.8 | 168.1 | 161 | 21 | 0.015 | 4 | 0.58 |
50+ | 220 | 95.8 | 87.8 | 81 | 18 | 0.13 | 8 | 0.47 |
Total | 4718 | 676.7 | 626.4 | 599 | 13 | 0.0028 | 5 | 0.27 |
Nodes positive | ||||||||
ER negative | ||||||||
0 | 536 | 103.7 | 101.6 | 107 | -3 | 0.75 | -5 | 0.59 |
1 | 150 | 41.7 | 48.5 | 49 | -15 | 0.26 | -1 | 0.95 |
2–4 | 168 | 71.1 | 76.8 | 68 | 5 | 0.71 | 13 | 0.31 |
5–9 | 92 | 53.7 | 53.5 | 57 | -6 | 0.65 | -6 | 0.63 |
10+ | 74 | 56.0 | 50.5 | 52 | 8 | 0.59 | -3 | 0.84 |
Total | 1020 | 326.3 | 331.1 | 333 | -2 | 0.71 | -1 | 0.92 |
ER positive | ||||||||
0 | 2832 | 182.7 | 188.4 | 180 | 1 | 0.84 | 5 | 0.54 |
1 | 703 | 87.1 | 86.7 | 69 | 26 | 0.05 | 26 | 0.057 |
2–4 | 713 | 169.3 | 146.9 | 136 | 25 | 0.01 | 8 | 0.37 |
5–9 | 304 | 129.8 | 113.9 | 122 | 6 | 0.49 | -7 | 0.45 |
10+ | 166 | 107.7 | 90.4 | 92 | 17 | 0.13 | -2 | 0.87 |
Total | 4718 | 676.7 | 626.4 | 599 | 13 | 0.0028 | 5 | 0.27 |
Grade | ||||||||
ER negative | ||||||||
1 | 27 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 38 | 0.58 | 70 | 0.36 |
2 | 240 | 62.8 | 69.4 | 75.8 | -17 | 0.10 | -8 | 0.44 |
3 | 753 | 259.5 | 256.7 | 235.8 | 10 | 0.14 | 9 | 0.19 |
Total | 1020 | 326.3 | 331.1 | 314.5 | 4 | 0.51 | 5 | 0.36 |
ER positive | ||||||||
1 | 963 | 34.2 | 36.2 | 30 | 14 | 0.47 | 21 | 0.30 |
2 | 2696 | 319.2 | 305.1 | 296 | 8 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.60 |
3 | 1059 | 323.3 | 285.0 | 273 | 18 | 0.0051 | 4 | 0.48 |
Total | 4718 | 676.7 | 626.4 | 599 | 13 | 0.0028 | 5 | 0.27 |