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Table 5 Discrimination performance of final model and sub models in comparison to established risk models

From: A clinical model for identifying the short-term risk of breast cancer

Model AUCa 95% CI LRb
1. Percentage mammographic density, age at mammography, BMI 0.63 0.60–0.65 109.2
2. Model 1 + family history of breast cancer, HRT use 0.64 0.62–0.67 122.0
3. Model 2 + absolute differences for calcifications, masses, density 0.70 0.68–0.72 193.7
4. Model 3 + interaction between percentage density and masses 0.71 0.69–0.73 233.6
Established risk models for comparison
 Tyrer-Cuzickc 0.63 0.60–0.65 88.2
 Gaild 0.56 0.53–0.58 34.9
  1. BMI Body mass index, HRT Hormone replacement therapy, LR Likelihood ratio
  2. aAUC was evaluated for the absolute risks of stated models
  3. bChi-square test of β = 0
  4. cTyrer-Cuzick model included risk factors of age, age at menarche, age at first child, menopause, length, weight, HRT, hyperplasia, atypical hyperplasia, lobular cancer in situ, and first-/second-degree family history of breast cancer. Data coding was done according to the Tyrer-Cuzick protocol
  5. dGail model included risk factors of age, age at menarche, age at first live birth, number of previous breast biopsies, atypical hyperplasia, and first-degree family history of breast cancer. Data coding was done according to the Gail protocol