Outcomes of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy in relation to familial history: a decision analysis (BRCR-D-16-00033)

Table 1 Base Case Probabilities, Utilities, and Ranges Used in Sensitivity Analysis

Variable	Base Case	Range	Reference
Annual risk of CBC			[13]
No family history of breast cancer	0.0047	0.0041–0.0052
Second-degree relative only	0.0061	0.0470–0.0900
First-degree relative, unilateral	0.0090	0.0063–0.0121
First-degree relative, bilateral	0.0168	0.0088–0.0330
BRCA 1/2 mutation carriers	0.0184	0.0160–0.0213
ER-negative/ER-positive risk ratio	1.25	1.10–2.00	[6, 7, 12, 13, 24–30]
CBC risk reduction after CPM	0.95	0.75–1.00	[2, 21, 32, 33]
Risk of developing CBC stage I-IV			[21]
Stage I	0.66
Stage II	0.25
Stage III	0.05
Stage IV	0.04
10-year disease-specific risk of dying			[7]
Stage I	0.018
Stage II	0.231
Stage III	0.592
Stage IV	0.911
Risk of dying of other causes	Age specific		[23]
			[8, 31]
First year after treatment
CPM	0.70	0.41–0.95
No CPM	0.90	0.87–1.00
No CBC
Years 2-5	0.79	0.45–1.00
Year 6 and beyond	0.84	0.77–1.00
CBC
New CBC	0.73	0.58–1.00
Years 2-5	0.79	0.45–1.00
Year 6 and beyond	0.84	0.77–1.00
Long-term survivor	0.84	0.77–1.00

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