Fig. 1

Schematic drawing of the extended MISCAN model. Transition possibilities are indicated with arrows. All diseases within the grey area are preclinical disease, after diagnosis they are either clinically detected or detected by mass screening. There is no transition between low-grade DCIS, intermediate-grade DCIS and high-grade DCIS. DCIS ductal carcinoma in situ, MISCAN MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis (predicted rates by the model), T1a tumour with a diameter up to 5 mm, T1b tumour with a diameter from 5 mm up to 10 mm, T1c tumour with a diameter from 10 mm up to 20 mm, T2 + any tumour with a diameter larger than 20 mm