Mammographic density adds accuracy to both the Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail breast cancer risk models in a prospective UK screening cohort

Table 2 Performance of risk models and breast density

	No cancer, median (IQR)	Cancer, median (IQR)	IQR-OR^a (95 % CI)	IQR-OR^b (95 % CI)	LR^a-χ²	LR^b-Δχ²	AUC^a (95 % CI)	AUC^b (95 % CI)
Primary: invasive + DCIS
Number of women	49,931	697
Gail	3.50 % (2.90–4.40 %)	3.70 % (3.10–4.60 %)	1.22 (1.12–1.33)	1.21 (1.10–1.31)	19.7		0.55 (0.52–0.57)
Density residual	−0.06 (−0.73–0.63)	0.24 (−0.40–0.91)	1.48 (1.34–1.63)	1.47 (1.33–1.62)	61.4	58.6	0.59 (0.57–0.61)	0.59 (0.57–0.61)
Tyrer-Cuzick	2.66 % (2.12–3.47 %)	2.94 % (2.28–3.97 %)	1.36 (1.25–1.48)	1.34 (1.23–1.45)	49.2		0.57 (0.55–0.59)
Density residual	−0.06 (−0.73–0.63)	0.24 (−0.40–0.91)	1.48 (1.34–1.63)	1.45 (1.32–1.60)	61.4	54.8	0.59 (0.57–0.61)	0.61 (0.59–0.63)
Secondary: invasive
Number of women	50,061	567
Gail	3.50 % (2.90–4.40 %)	3.70 % (3.00–4.55 %)	1.19 (1.07–1.31)	1.17 (1.06–1.29)	11.3		0.54 (0.52–0.56)
Density residual	−0.06 (−0.73–0.63)	0.24 (−0.40–0.85)	1.47 (1.32–1.64)	1.46 (1.31–1.63)	48.5	46.6	0.59 (0.56–0.61)	0.59 (0.57–0.61)
Tyrer-Cuzick	2.66 % (2.12–3.47 %)	2.93 % (2.29–3.88 %)	1.33 (1.21–1.46)	1.30 (1.18–1.43)	33.6	33.6	0.57 (0.55–0.59)
Density residual	−0.06 (−0.73–0.63)	0.24 (−0.40–0.85)	1.47 (1.32–1.64)	1.46 (1.31–1.63)	48.5	43.7	0.59 (0.56–0.61)	0.61 (0.58–0.63)

Gail 10-year risk, TC Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year risk, DR density residual, IQR interquartile range, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, LR likelihood ratio, AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
^aUnivariate
^bMultivariate (risk model + density)

ISSN: 1465-542X