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Table 2 Performance of risk models and breast density

From: Mammographic density adds accuracy to both the Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail breast cancer risk models in a prospective UK screening cohort

  No cancer, median (IQR) Cancer, median (IQR) IQR-ORa (95 % CI) IQR-ORb (95 % CI) LRa2 LRb-Δχ2 AUCa (95 % CI) AUCb (95 % CI)
Primary: invasive + DCIS
Number of women 49,931 697       
Gail 3.50 % (2.90–4.40 %) 3.70 % (3.10–4.60 %) 1.22 (1.12–1.33) 1.21 (1.10–1.31) 19.7   0.55 (0.52–0.57)  
Density residual  −0.06 (−0.73–0.63) 0.24 (−0.40–0.91) 1.48 (1.34–1.63) 1.47 (1.33–1.62) 61.4 58.6 0.59 (0.57–0.61) 0.59 (0.57–0.61)
Tyrer-Cuzick  2.66 % (2.12–3.47 %) 2.94 % (2.28–3.97 %) 1.36 (1.25–1.48) 1.34 (1.23–1.45) 49.2   0.57 (0.55–0.59)  
Density residual −0.06 (−0.73–0.63) 0.24 (−0.40–0.91) 1.48 (1.34–1.63) 1.45 (1.32–1.60) 61.4 54.8 0.59 (0.57–0.61) 0.61 (0.59–0.63)
Secondary: invasive
Number of women 50,061 567       
Gail 3.50 % (2.90–4.40 %) 3.70 % (3.00–4.55 %) 1.19 (1.07–1.31) 1.17 (1.06–1.29) 11.3   0.54 (0.52–0.56)  
Density residual −0.06 (−0.73–0.63) 0.24 (−0.40–0.85) 1.47 (1.32–1.64) 1.46 (1.31–1.63) 48.5 46.6 0.59 (0.56–0.61) 0.59 (0.57–0.61)
Tyrer-Cuzick 2.66 % (2.12–3.47 %) 2.93 % (2.29–3.88 %) 1.33 (1.21–1.46) 1.30 (1.18–1.43) 33.6 33.6 0.57 (0.55–0.59)  
Density residual −0.06 (−0.73–0.63) 0.24 (−0.40–0.85) 1.47 (1.32–1.64) 1.46 (1.31–1.63) 48.5 43.7 0.59 (0.56–0.61) 0.61 (0.58–0.63)
  1. Gail 10-year risk, TC Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year risk, DR density residual, IQR interquartile range, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, LR likelihood ratio, AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
  2. aUnivariate
  3. bMultivariate (risk model + density)