Skip to main content

Table 2 Known breast cancer risk factors and their incorporation into existing risk prediction models

From: Can the breast screening appointment be used to provide risk assessment and prevention advice?

 

Relative risk at extremes

Gail

Claus

BRCAPRO Ford

Tyrer-Cuzick

BOADICEA

Prediction

      

Personal information

      

Age (20 to 70)

30 (20 versus 70)

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Body mass index/weight gain

2 (loss versus gain from 30) [49]

No

No

No

Yes

No

Alcohol intake

1.28 [28] (0 versus 4 units) daily

No

No

No

No

No

Hormonal/reproductive factors

      

Age of menarche

1.5 (<10 versus >16) [57]

Yes

No

No

Yes

No

Age of first live birth

3 (>35 versus <19) [58]

Yes

No

No

Yes

No

Age of menopause

2 (>55 versus <40) [57]

No

No

No

Yes

No

Hormone replacement therapy use

2 (combined for 10 years current versus never) [59]

No

No

No

Yes

No

Oral contraceptive pill use

1.24 (current versus never) [60]

No

No

No

No

No

Breast feeding

0.8 (>4 years versus none) [61]

No

No

No

No

No

Plasma oestrogen

6 [62]

No

No

No

No

No

Personal breast disease

      

Breast biopsies

2 [63]

Yes

No

No

Yes

No

Atypical ductal hyperplasia

4 [63]

Yes

No

No

Yes

No

Lobular carcinoma in situ

4 [63]

No

No

No

Yes

No

Mammographic breast density

6 [64]

Has been modelled in some studies

No

No

Yes

No

Family history

      

First-degree relatives

3.6 [65] (2 versus none in FDR)

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Second degree relatives

1.5 [65]

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Third-degree relatives

 

No

No

No

No

Yes

Age of onset of breast cancer

3 (<50 in sister versus none) [65]

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Bilateral breast cancer

3 (<50 in FDR versus none)

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Ovarian cancer

1.5 [26]

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Male breast cancer

3 (<45 years in daughters) [64]

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Genetic testing

      

BRCA1/2

15

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

SNPs

10 (top 1 % versus bottom 1 % for 77 SNPs) [67]

Has been added in some studies

No

Soon

Soon

Soon

  1. BOADICEA, Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm; FDR, first-degree relative; SNP, single-nucleotide polymorphism. Table adapted from [68]