The use of the Gail model, body mass index and SNPs to predict breast cancer among women with abnormal (BI-RADS 4) mammograms

Table 4 Predictive accuracy of models using Gail risk factors, body mass index and single-nucleotide polymorphism panel among women with BIRADS 4 mammograms ^a

	Total study population ( N = 464)				Age 35 to 49 yr ( N = 155)		Age ≥50 yr ( N = 236)		White ( N = 277)		Black ( N = 145)
	AUC	GOF ^b	P -value ^c	P -value ^d	AUC	P -value ^c	AUC	P -value ^c	AUC	P -value ^c	AUC	P -value ^c
Age, log Gail RR	0.6646	0.0019	0.839		0.5475	0.966	0.6748	0.470	0.6654	0.373	0.7243	0.495
Age, BMI	0.6845	0.3649	0.210		0.5775	0.619	0.6914	0.613	0.6826	0.317	0.7456	0.653
Age, log SNP RR	0.6848	0.3134	0.197		0.6068	0.445	0.6917	0.508	0.6890	0.153	0.7385	0.836
Age, BMI, log SNP RR	0.7007	0.9297	0.061		0.6258	0.337	0.7086	0.276	0.7078	0.060	0.7527	0.661
Gail factors^e	0.7144	0.3586	0.044	Reference	0.5488	0.123	0.7115	0.267	0.7390	0.019	0.7256	0.925
Gail factors, BMI	0.7279	0.7646	0.014	0.341	0.6964	0.072	0.7272	0.167	0.7463	0.011	0.7485	0.602
Gail factors, BMI, log SNP RR	0.7377	0.1924	0.007	0.212	0.7242	0.026	0.7356	0.116	0.7518	0.007	0.7719	0.442

^aAUC, Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BI-RADS, Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System; BMI, Body mass index; RR, Relative risk; SNP, Single-nucleotide polymorphism. ^b P-value derived from Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (GOF) test. ^c P-value derived from DeLong test compared to a model with age only. ^d P-value derived from DeLong test compared to reference model. ^eGail factors include age, race/ethnicity, age at menarche, age at first live birth, first-degree family history of breast cancer, breast biopsy and atypical hyperplasia.

ISSN: 1465-542X