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Table 7 Fit of model estimates to data observed in a trial of annual mammographicscreening starting age 40 in the UK.

From: Modelling the overdiagnosis of breast cancer due to mammography screening in womenaged 40 to 49 in the United Kingdom

 

Invasive

In-situ

 

Observed

Expected

Observed

Expected

Screening episode

AGE trial

Paremeter estimation model

Overdiagnosis model

AGE trial

Paremeter estimation model

Overdiagnosis model

  

Intervention arm (offered annual screening)

 
  

Screen-detected cancers

 

1

31

28(22-34)

32

6

7(3-12)

7

2

20

18(16-20)

19

3

5(2-8)

5

3

16

17(15-19)

18

3

5(2-7)

5

4

15

17(15-18)

17

5

5(2-6)

5

5

16

15(13-17)

16

4

5(2-6)

4

6

13

14(13-15)

15

7

3(2-6)

4

7

19

14(12-15)

14

9

3(2-6)

4

8

21

11(10-12)

12

6

3(2-4)

3

Total

151

134(116-150)

143

43

36(17-55)

37

Interval cancers

1

7

19(16-23)

16

2

1.4(0.6-2.6)

2

2

17

17(14-19)

14

2

1.3(0.5-2.4)

1

3

17

15(13-18)

13

0

1.2(0.5-2.2)

1

4

17

13(11-15)

13

1

1(0.4-1.9)

1

5

10

12(10-14)

12

0

0.9(0.4-1.7)

1

6

16

12(10-13)

11

1

0.9(0.4-1.7)

1

7

18

10(8-11)

11

1

0.7(0.3-1.4)

1

8

11

4(3-5)

9

2

0.2(0.1-0.5)

1

Total

113

102(85-118)

99

9

7.6(3.2-14.4)

9

Control arm (not offered screening)

40

52

-1

69

1

-

5

41

115

-

111

8

-

7

42

115

-

124

7

-

9

43

129

-

133

7

-

12

44

138

-

147

15

-

13

45

161

-

155

16

-

12

46

161

-

160

12

-

10

47

165

-

165

7

-

11

48

172

-

166

13

-

12

Total

1208

-

1230

86

-

91

  1. 1The parameter estimation model was built using the incidence in thecontrol arm.