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Table 6 Ratios of expected (E) to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers by age at screening group and 10-year predicted risk quintile group

From: Validation of the Gail model for predicting individual breast cancer risk in a prospective nationwide study of 28,104 Singapore women

  Based on Gail model
(Caucasian)
Based on Matsuno AABCS model
(Chinese-American and other Asian-American)
  O E E/O 95% CI
for E/O
O E E/O 95% CI
for E/O
Total 409 758.18 1.85 (1.68, 2.04) 409 404.70 0.99 (0.90, 1.09)
5-year age at screening group         
   50-54 years 135 205.49 1.52 (1.29, 1.80) 135 128.96 0.96 (0.81, 1.13)
   55-59 years 168 283.71 1.69 (1.45, 1.96) 168 153.13 0.91 (0.78, 1.06)
   60-64 yearsa 106 268.94 2.54 (2.10, 3.07) 106 122.58 1.16 (0.96, 1.40)
  χ2 = 170.09, P < 0.001 χ2 = 3.97, P = 0.137
5-year predicted risk groupb         
   1%-20% 62 107.19 1.73 (1.35, 2.22) 49 49.33 1.01 (0.76, 1.33)
   21%-40% 70 128.26 1.83 (1.45, 2.32) 55 64.54 1.17 (0.90, 1.53)
   41%-60% 60 144.77 2.41 (1.87, 3.11) 82 74.29 0.91 (0.73, 1.12)
   61%-80% 89 163.95 1.84 (1.50, 2.27) 86 88.32 1.03 (0.83, 1.27)
   81%-100% 128 214.00 1.67 (1.41, 1.99) 137 128.21 0.94 (0.79, 1.11)
  χ2 = 163.98, P < 0.001 χ2 = 2.88, P = 0.579
5-year age at screening group
5-year predicted risk groupb
        
   50-54 years         
1%-20% 29 56.55 1.95 (1.36, 2.81) 8 11.85 1.48 (0.74, 2.96)
21%-40% 28 38.62 1.38 (0.95, 2.00) 13 13.00 1.00 (0.58, 1.72)
41%-60% 19 37.93 2.00 (1.27, 3.13) 35 24.69 0.71 (0.51, 0.98)
61%-80% 35 39.24 1.12 (0.80, 1.56) 28 32.03 1.14 (0.79, 1.66)
81%-100% 24 33.15 1.38 (0.93, 2.06) 51 47.37 0.93 (0.71, 1.22)
   55-59 years         
1%-20% 21 32.73 1.56 (1.02, 2.39) 22 17.32 0.79 (0.52, 1.20)
21%-40% 35 65.44 1.87 (1.34, 2.60) 22 19.19 0.87 (0.57, 1.32)
41%-60% 21 29.51 1.41 (0.92, 2.16) 29 29.55 1.02 (0.71, 1.47)
61%-80% 36 78.42 2.18 (1.57, 3.02) 38 35.81 0.94 (0.69, 1.30)
81%-100% 55 77.60 1.41 (1.08, 1.84) 57 51.26 0.90 (0.69, 1.17)
   60-64 yearsa         
1%-20% 12 17.87 1.49 (0.85, 2.62) 19 20.15 1.06 (0.68, 1.66)
21%-40% 7 24.20 3.46 (1.65, 7.25) 20 32.35 1.62 (1.04, 2.51)
41%-60% 20 77.33 3.87 (2.49, 5.99) 18 20.02 1.11 (0.70, 1.77)
61%-80% 18 46.29 2.57 (1.62, 4.08) 20 20.48 1.02 (0.66, 1.59)
81%-100% 49 103.25 2.11 (1.59, 2.79) 29 29.58 1.02 (0.71, 1.47)
  χ2 = 181.57, P < 0.001 χ2 = 13.81, P = 0.464
  1. aGroup of 60- to 64-year-olds included some older than 64 years as they were screened in 1996-1997. bBased on ranking of the study cohort by 10-year predicted risk in ascending order. AABCS, Asian American Breast Cancer Study model; CI, confidence interval; E, expected number of breast cancer cases; E/O, ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancer cases; O, observed number of breast cancer cases.
  2. Ratios of expected (E) numbers of invasive breast cancers using 10-year predicted risk based on Gail model and Matsuno model to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 10 years from screening among Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project cohort by age at screening group and 10-year predicted risk quintile group