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Table 4 Ratios of expected (E) to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers by age at screening group and 5-year predicted risk quintile group

From: Validation of the Gail model for predicting individual breast cancer risk in a prospective nationwide study of 28,104 Singapore women

  Based on Gail model
(Caucasian)
Based on Matsuno AABCS model
(Chinese-American and other Asian-American)
  O E E/O 95% CI
for E/O
O E E/O 95% CI
for E/O
Total 144 362.08 2.51 (2.14, 2.96) 141 205.95 1.46 (1.24, 1.72)
5-year age at screening group         
   50-54 years 44 94.48 2.15 (1.60, 2.89) 44 64.39 1.46 (1.09, 1.97)
   55-59 years 62 133.36 2.15 (1.68, 2.76) 62 79.48 1.28 (1.00, 1.64)
   60-64 yearsa 38 134.23 3.53 (2.57, 4.85) 38 60.07 1.58 (1.15, 2.17)
  χ2 = 134.14, P < 0.001 χ2 = 18.41, P < 0.001
5-year predicted risk groupb         
   1%-20% 20 49.83 2.49 (1.61, 3.86) 16 25.16 1.57 (0.96, 2.57)
   21%-40% 27 60.63 2.25 (1.54, 3.27) 19 32.31 1.70 (1.08, 2.67)
   41%-60% 29 69.25 2.39 (1.66, 3.44) 29 37.64 1.30 (0.90, 1.87)
   61%-80% 23 78.41 3.41 (2.27, 5.13) 29 45.24 1.56 (1.08, 2.24)
   81%-100% 45 103.96 2.31 (1.72, 3.09) 51 65.60 1.29 (0.98, 1.69)
  χ2 = 132.50, P < 0.001 χ2 = 19.88, P = 0.001
5-year age at screening group,
5-year predicted risk groupb
        
   50-54 years         
1%-20% 10 28.00 2.80 (1.51, 5.20) 2 7.07 3.54 (0.88, 14.13)
21%-40% 8 21.01 2.63 (1.31, 5.25) 5 6.02 1.20 (0.50, 2.89)
41%-60% 13 20.22 1.56 (0.90, 2.68) 10 13.68 1.37 (0.74, 2.54)
61%-80% 7 13.4 1.91 (0.91, 4.02) 10 14.62 1.46 (0.79, 2.72)
81%-100% 6 11.86 1.98 (0.89, 4.40) 17 22.99 1.35 (0.84, 2.18)
   55-59 years         
1%-20% 7 17.96 2.57 (1.22, 5.38) 6 8.46 1.41 (0.63, 3.14)
21%-40% 14 26.54 1.90 (1.12, 3.20) 9 8.43 0.94 (0.49, 1.80)
41%-60% 11 22.76 2.07 (1.15, 3.74) 12 15.52 1.29 (0.73, 2.28)
61%-80% 10 31.77 3.18 (1.71, 5.90) 14 19.48 1.39 (0.82, 2.35)
81%-100% 20 34.33 1.72 (1.11, 2.66) 21 27.59 1.31 (0.86, 2.02)
   60-64 yearsa         
1%-20% 3 3.85 1.28 (0.41, 3.98) 8 9.62 1.20 (0.60, 2.40)
21%-40% 5 13.09 2.62 (1.09, 6.29) 5 17.86 3.57 (1.49, 8.58)
41%-60% 5 26.27 5.25 (2.19, 12.62) 7 8.44 1.21 (0.57, 2.53)
61%-80% 6 33.24 5.54 (2.49, 12.33) 5 11.14 2.23 (0.93, 5.35)
81%-100% 19 57.78 3.04 (1.94, 4.77) 13 15.01 1.15 (0.67, 1.99)
  χ2 = 138.51, P < 0.001 χ2 = 25.92, P = 0.027
  1. a60-64 years group included some older than 64 years as they are screened in 1996-1997. bBased on ranking of the study cohort by 10-year predicted risk in ascending order. AABCS, Asian American Breast Cancer Study model; CI, confidence interval; E, expected number of breast cancer cases; E/O, ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancer cases; O, observed number of breast cancer cases.
  2. Ratios of expected (E) numbers of invasive breast cancers using 5-year predicted risk based on Gail model and Matsuno model to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 5 years from screening among Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project cohort by age at screening group and 5-year predicted risk quintile group