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Table 4 Ratios of expected (E) to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers by age at screening group and 5-year predicted risk quintile group

From: Validation of the Gail model for predicting individual breast cancer risk in a prospective nationwide study of 28,104 Singapore women

 

Based on Gail model

(Caucasian)

Based on Matsuno AABCS model

(Chinese-American and other Asian-American)

 

O

E

E/O

95% CI

for E/O

O

E

E/O

95% CI

for E/O

Total

144

362.08

2.51

(2.14, 2.96)

141

205.95

1.46

(1.24, 1.72)

5-year age at screening group

        

   50-54 years

44

94.48

2.15

(1.60, 2.89)

44

64.39

1.46

(1.09, 1.97)

   55-59 years

62

133.36

2.15

(1.68, 2.76)

62

79.48

1.28

(1.00, 1.64)

   60-64 yearsa

38

134.23

3.53

(2.57, 4.85)

38

60.07

1.58

(1.15, 2.17)

 

χ2 = 134.14, P < 0.001

χ2 = 18.41, P < 0.001

5-year predicted risk groupb

        

   1%-20%

20

49.83

2.49

(1.61, 3.86)

16

25.16

1.57

(0.96, 2.57)

   21%-40%

27

60.63

2.25

(1.54, 3.27)

19

32.31

1.70

(1.08, 2.67)

   41%-60%

29

69.25

2.39

(1.66, 3.44)

29

37.64

1.30

(0.90, 1.87)

   61%-80%

23

78.41

3.41

(2.27, 5.13)

29

45.24

1.56

(1.08, 2.24)

   81%-100%

45

103.96

2.31

(1.72, 3.09)

51

65.60

1.29

(0.98, 1.69)

 

χ2 = 132.50, P < 0.001

χ2 = 19.88, P = 0.001

5-year age at screening group,

5-year predicted risk groupb

        

   50-54 years

        

1%-20%

10

28.00

2.80

(1.51, 5.20)

2

7.07

3.54

(0.88, 14.13)

21%-40%

8

21.01

2.63

(1.31, 5.25)

5

6.02

1.20

(0.50, 2.89)

41%-60%

13

20.22

1.56

(0.90, 2.68)

10

13.68

1.37

(0.74, 2.54)

61%-80%

7

13.4

1.91

(0.91, 4.02)

10

14.62

1.46

(0.79, 2.72)

81%-100%

6

11.86

1.98

(0.89, 4.40)

17

22.99

1.35

(0.84, 2.18)

   55-59 years

        

1%-20%

7

17.96

2.57

(1.22, 5.38)

6

8.46

1.41

(0.63, 3.14)

21%-40%

14

26.54

1.90

(1.12, 3.20)

9

8.43

0.94

(0.49, 1.80)

41%-60%

11

22.76

2.07

(1.15, 3.74)

12

15.52

1.29

(0.73, 2.28)

61%-80%

10

31.77

3.18

(1.71, 5.90)

14

19.48

1.39

(0.82, 2.35)

81%-100%

20

34.33

1.72

(1.11, 2.66)

21

27.59

1.31

(0.86, 2.02)

   60-64 yearsa

        

1%-20%

3

3.85

1.28

(0.41, 3.98)

8

9.62

1.20

(0.60, 2.40)

21%-40%

5

13.09

2.62

(1.09, 6.29)

5

17.86

3.57

(1.49, 8.58)

41%-60%

5

26.27

5.25

(2.19, 12.62)

7

8.44

1.21

(0.57, 2.53)

61%-80%

6

33.24

5.54

(2.49, 12.33)

5

11.14

2.23

(0.93, 5.35)

81%-100%

19

57.78

3.04

(1.94, 4.77)

13

15.01

1.15

(0.67, 1.99)

 

χ2 = 138.51, P < 0.001

χ2 = 25.92, P = 0.027

  1. a60-64 years group included some older than 64 years as they are screened in 1996-1997. bBased on ranking of the study cohort by 10-year predicted risk in ascending order. AABCS, Asian American Breast Cancer Study model; CI, confidence interval; E, expected number of breast cancer cases; E/O, ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancer cases; O, observed number of breast cancer cases.
  2. Ratios of expected (E) numbers of invasive breast cancers using 5-year predicted risk based on Gail model and Matsuno model to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 5 years from screening among Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project cohort by age at screening group and 5-year predicted risk quintile group
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Breast Cancer Research

ISSN: 1465-542X

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