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Table 3 Ratios of expected (E) to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 5 years from screening

From: Validation of the Gail model for predicting individual breast cancer risk in a prospective nationwide study of 28,104 Singapore women

Risk factors

Based on Gail model

(Caucasian)

Based on Matsuno AABCS model

(Chinese-American and other Asian-American)

 

O

E

E/O

95% CI

for E/O

O

E

E/O

95% CI

for E/O

Total

144

362.08

2.51

(2.14, 2.96)

144

205.95

1.43

(1.21, 1.68)

Age at menarche, years

        

   ≥ 14

89

228.92

2.57

(2.09, 3.17)

89

129.13

1.45

(1.18, 1.79)

   12-13

47

119.66

2.55

(1.91, 3.39)

47

69.23

1.47

(1.11, 1.96)

   < 12

8

13.50

1.69

(0.84, 3.37)

8

7.60

0.95

(0.48, 1.90)

 

χ2 = 131.88, P < 0.001

χ2 = 19.63, P < 0.001

Any breast biopsy

Age at screening: ≥50 years

        

   No

129

337.48

2.62

(2.20, 3.11)

129

186.43

1.45

(1.22, 1.72)

   Yes

15

24.60

1.64

(0.99, 2.72)

15

19.53

1.30

(0.78, 2.16)

 

χ2 = 132.54, P < 0.001

χ2 = 18.74, P < 0.001

Number of affected first-degree relatives

Age at first live birth: < 20 years

        

   0

17

44.89

2.64

(1.64, 4.25)

17

21.22

1.25

(0.78, 2.01)

   1

0

2.23

-

-

0

0.90

-

-

   > 1

0

0.07

-

-

0

0.01

-

-

Number of affected first-degree relatives

Age at first live birth: 20-24 years

        

   0

39

118.36

3.03

(2.22, 4.15)

39

62.73

1.61

(1.18, 2.20)

   1

4

5.27

1.32

(0.49, 3.51)

4

2.98

0.75

(0.28, 1.99)

   > 1

0

0.30

-

-

0

0.08

-

-

Number of affected first-degree relatives

Age at first live birth: 25-29 years or nulliparous

        

   0

54

127.92

2.37

(1.81, 3.09)

54

76.46

1.42

(1.08, 1.85)

   1

3

7.54

2.51

(0.81, 7.79)

3

5.71

1.90

(0.61, 5.90)

   > 1

0

0.18

-

-

0

0.07

-

-

Number of affected first-degree relatives

Age at first live birth: > 30 years

        

   0

24

52.62

2.19

(1.47, 3.27)

24

33.19

1.38

(0.93, 2.06)

   1

2

2.68

1.34

(0.34, 5.36)

2

2.58

1.29

(0.32, 5.16)

   > 1

1

0.04

0.04

(0.01, 0.28)

1

0.04

0.04

(0.01, 0.28)

 

χ2 = 157.85, P < 0.001

χ2 = 44.82, P < 0.001

  1. AABCS, Asian American Breast Cancer Study model; CI, confidence interval; E, expected number of breast cancer cases; E/O, ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancer cases; O, observed number of breast cancer cases.
  2. Foot note: Ratios of expected (E) numbers of invasive breast cancers using 5-year predicted risk based on Gail model and Matsuno model to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 5 years from screening among Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project cohort by risk factors in Gail model
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