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Table 3 Ratios of expected (E) to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 5 years from screening

From: Validation of the Gail model for predicting individual breast cancer risk in a prospective nationwide study of 28,104 Singapore women

Risk factors Based on Gail model
(Caucasian)
Based on Matsuno AABCS model
(Chinese-American and other Asian-American)
  O E E/O 95% CI
for E/O
O E E/O 95% CI
for E/O
Total 144 362.08 2.51 (2.14, 2.96) 144 205.95 1.43 (1.21, 1.68)
Age at menarche, years         
   ≥ 14 89 228.92 2.57 (2.09, 3.17) 89 129.13 1.45 (1.18, 1.79)
   12-13 47 119.66 2.55 (1.91, 3.39) 47 69.23 1.47 (1.11, 1.96)
   < 12 8 13.50 1.69 (0.84, 3.37) 8 7.60 0.95 (0.48, 1.90)
  χ2 = 131.88, P < 0.001 χ2 = 19.63, P < 0.001
Any breast biopsy
Age at screening: ≥50 years
        
   No 129 337.48 2.62 (2.20, 3.11) 129 186.43 1.45 (1.22, 1.72)
   Yes 15 24.60 1.64 (0.99, 2.72) 15 19.53 1.30 (0.78, 2.16)
  χ2 = 132.54, P < 0.001 χ2 = 18.74, P < 0.001
Number of affected first-degree relatives
Age at first live birth: < 20 years
        
   0 17 44.89 2.64 (1.64, 4.25) 17 21.22 1.25 (0.78, 2.01)
   1 0 2.23 - - 0 0.90 - -
   > 1 0 0.07 - - 0 0.01 - -
Number of affected first-degree relatives
Age at first live birth: 20-24 years
        
   0 39 118.36 3.03 (2.22, 4.15) 39 62.73 1.61 (1.18, 2.20)
   1 4 5.27 1.32 (0.49, 3.51) 4 2.98 0.75 (0.28, 1.99)
   > 1 0 0.30 - - 0 0.08 - -
Number of affected first-degree relatives
Age at first live birth: 25-29 years or nulliparous
        
   0 54 127.92 2.37 (1.81, 3.09) 54 76.46 1.42 (1.08, 1.85)
   1 3 7.54 2.51 (0.81, 7.79) 3 5.71 1.90 (0.61, 5.90)
   > 1 0 0.18 - - 0 0.07 - -
Number of affected first-degree relatives
Age at first live birth: > 30 years
        
   0 24 52.62 2.19 (1.47, 3.27) 24 33.19 1.38 (0.93, 2.06)
   1 2 2.68 1.34 (0.34, 5.36) 2 2.58 1.29 (0.32, 5.16)
   > 1 1 0.04 0.04 (0.01, 0.28) 1 0.04 0.04 (0.01, 0.28)
  χ2 = 157.85, P < 0.001 χ2 = 44.82, P < 0.001
  1. AABCS, Asian American Breast Cancer Study model; CI, confidence interval; E, expected number of breast cancer cases; E/O, ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancer cases; O, observed number of breast cancer cases.
  2. Foot note: Ratios of expected (E) numbers of invasive breast cancers using 5-year predicted risk based on Gail model and Matsuno model to observed (O) numbers of invasive breast cancers diagnosed within 5 years from screening among Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project cohort by risk factors in Gail model