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Table 5 Comparison of mortality and person-years lost for data-derived and constrained models in development and validation cohorts

From: PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer

    All cause mortality Breast specific mortality Person-Years Lost
ECRIC
Model:
Hormone coefficient Chemotherapy coefficient A P ROC A P ROC Total Possible PY A P
Full Model Model 1,075 1,082 0.81 737 768 0.84 35,003 3,099 3,341
Full Overview* Overview 1,075 984 0.81 737 660 0.83 35,003 3,099 3,030
Constrained Model Model 1,075 980 0.81 737 656 0.83 35,003 3,099 3,061
Constrained Overview Overview 1,075 990 0.81 737 667 0.83 35,003 3,099 3,089
WMCIU
Model:
           
Full Model Model 955 1,006 0.79 668 743 0.82 28,322 2,405 2,513
Full Overview Overview 955 956 0.79 668 690 0.81 28,322 2,405 2,376
Constrained Model Model 955 952 0.78 668 685 0.81 28,322 2,405 2,406
Constrained Overview Overview 955 965 0.78 668 699 0.81 28,322 2,405 2,436
  1. *Application of overview estimates is performed by setting the model-derived therapy coefficient to zero. Overview-derived therapy risk reductions (first generation) are then applied in the life table analysis. The risk reductions are only applied to individuals who actually received therapy. No Overview hormone therapy benefit was applied to individuals with ER- tumors.
  2. Under the constrained model, the model coefficient for adjuvant hormone therapy is the same as the Overview estimate.
  3. Follow-up was censored at eight years