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Table 4 Overall actual and predicted mortality in West Midland Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) cohort

From: PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer

    Year 5 deaths* Year 8 deaths*   
Group N % A P Mortality
Difference
A P Mortality
Difference
AUC SE
Total 5,468 100 862 950 1.61 955 1006 0.93 0.79 0.008
Age, years           
   <35 108 1.98 21 24 2.78 28 26 1.85 0.70 0.057
   35 to 49 1,195 21.85 153 185 2.68 175 201 2.18 0.79 0.018
   50 to 64 2,393 43.76 279 311 1.34 310 334 1 0.80 0.013
   65 to 74 1,101 20.14 198 203 0.45 218 217 0.09 0.76 0.018
   75+ 671 12.27 211 216 0.75 224 228 0.6 0.72 0.021
Nodal status           
   Negative 3,184 58.23 265 333 2.14 301 357 1.76 0.74 0.015
   Positive 2,284 41.77 597 606 0.39 654 648 0.26 0.75 0.011
Tumour size, mm           
   <10 485 8.87 27 32 1.03 29 34 1.03 0.82 0.040
   10 to 19 2,136 39.06 173 216 2.01 196 233 1.73 0.76 0.018
   20 to 29 1,566 28.64 259 274 0.96 286 295 0.57 0.71 0.017
   30 to 49 923 16.88 257 258 0.11 272 276 0.43 0.72 0.018
   50+ 358 6.55 146 160 3.91 156 168 3.35 0.72 0.027
Grade           
   I 1,017 18.6 66 67 0.1 75 72 0.29 0.79 0.029
   II 2,442 44.66 314 318 0.16 359 344 0.61 0.77 0.013
   III 2,009 36.74 482 554 3.58 521 589 3.38 0.75 0.012
Oestrogen Receptor (ER) Status           
   Negative 1,116 20.41 317 364 4.21 341 380 3.49 0.76 0.016
   Positive 4,352 79.59 545 575 0.69 614 625 0.25 0.78 0.010
  1. * Number of deaths after censoring follow up at five and eight years after diagnosis.
  2. † Predicted number of deaths rounded to nearest whole number