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Table 3 Overall actual and predicted mortality in Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre cohort

From: PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer

    Year 5 deaths* Year 8 deaths*   
Group N % A P Mortality
Difference
A P Mortality
Difference
AUC SE
Total 5,694 100.00 841 890 0.86 1,075 1,082 0.12 0.81 0.007
Age, years           
   <35 111 1.95 28 23 4.5 31 27 3.6 0.83 0.044
   35 to 49 1,172 20.58 150 171 1.79 187 209 1.88 0.81 0.017
   50 to 64 2,630 46.19 270 289 0.72 354 359 0.19 0.80 0.013
   65 to 74 1,124 19.74 176 191 1.33 227 233 0.53 0.79 0.019
   75+ 657 11.54 217 216 0.15 276 254 3.35 0.68 0.021
Nodal status           
   Negative 3,532 62.03 297 350 1.5 408 433 0.71 0.76 0.013
   Positive 2,162 37.97 544 541 0.14 667 649 0.83 0.80 0.010
Tumour size, mm           
   <10 625 10.98 30 39 1.44 41 49 1.28 0.75 0.038
   10 to 19 2,310 40.57 194 222 1.21 267 280 0.56 0.75 0.017
   20 to 29 1,627 28.57 277 283 0.37 363 347 0.98 0.79 0.013
   30 to 49 845 14.84 215 226 1.3 259 270 1.3 0.76 0.018
   50+ 287 5.04 125 119 2.09 145 136 3.14 0.82 0.024
Grade           
   I 1,005 17.65 38 64 2.59 55 82 2.69 0.76 0.035
   II 2,927 51.40 331 357 0.89 455 445 0.34 0.77 0.013
   III 1,762 30.94 472 470 0.11 565 555 0.57 0.77 0.012
Oestrogen Receptor (ER) Status           
   Negative 991 17.40 321 318 0.3 364 353 1.11 0.77 0.016
   Positive 4,703 82.60 520 572 1.11 711 729 0.38 0.80 0.009
  1. * Number of deaths after censoring follow up at five and eight years after diagnosis.
  2. † Predicted number of deaths rounded to nearest whole number