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Table 3 Risk prediction model for breast cancer with and without estradiol (loge)

From: Risk prediction models with incomplete data with application to prediction of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: prospective data from the Nurses' Health Study

No estradiol model

Parameter

Beta

SE

P value

Increment

RR

95% CI

Intercept

-10.8

     

Duration of premenopause, years

0.102

0.009

<0.001

1

1.11

1.09, 1.13

(Age at first birth minus age at menarche) × parousa

0.0035

0.0051

0.49

10

1.04

0.94, 1.14

Birth indexa

-0.0030

0.0007

<0.001

102

0.74

0.64, 0.85

Duration of postmenopause (natural menopause)

0.049

0.006

<0.001

1

1.05

1.04, 1.06

Duration of postmenopause (bilateral oophorectomy)

0.039

0.008

<0.001

1

1.04

1.02, 1.06

Benign breast disease

0.288

0.656

0.66

1

1.33

0.37, 4.82

Benign breast disease × age at menarche

0.091

0.027

0.001

1

1.10

1.04, 1.15

Benign breast disease × duration premenopause

-0.018

0.012

0.14

1

0.98

0.96, 1.01

Benign breast disease × duration postmenopause

-0.029

0.008

<0.001

1

0.97

0.96, 0.99

Duration of estrogen use

0.032

0.008

<0.001

10

1.38

1.18, 1.61

Duration of estrogen plus progestin use

0.068

0.013

<0.001

10

1.97

1.53, 2.55

Duration of other PMH use

0.032

0.011

0.006

10

1.38

1.11, 1.71

Current PMH use

0.109

0.079

0.17

1

1.12

0.96, 1.30

Past PMH use

-0.022

0.073

0.76

1

0.98

0.85, 1.13

Average BMI premenopause or postmenopause while on PMH × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH)

-0.0011

0.0003

<0.001

370b

0.67

0.54, 0.83

Average BMI postmenopause while not on PMH × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH)

0.0038

0.0006

<0.001

200c

2.14

1.69, 2.71

Height × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH)

0.00072

0.00037

0.052

222d

1.17

1.00, 1.38

Height × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH)

-1 × 10-5

0.0015

0.99

120e

1.00

0.70, 1.42

Cumulative alcohol consumption before menopause, grams

0.00034

0.00009

<0.001

384f

1.14

1.06, 1.22

Cumulative alcohol consumption after menopause while on PMH

-0.00036

0.00041

0.39

120g

0.96

0.87, 1.05

Cumulative alcohol consumption postmenopause while not on PMH

0.00008

0.00031

0.80

240h

1.02

0.88, 1.18

Family history of breast cancer

0.447

0.065

<0.001

1

1.56

1.38, 1.78

Model including loge estradioli

Parameter

Beta

SE

P value

Increment

RR

95% CI

Intercept

-11.9

     

Duration of premenopause, years

0.101

0.01

<0.001

1

1.11

1.08, 1.13

(Age at first birth minus age at menarche) × parousa

0.0035

0.0055

<0.001

10

1.04

0.93, 1.15

Birth index

-0.0020

0.0008

0.02

102

0.82

0.69, 0.96

Duration of postmenopause (natural menopause)

0.056

0.007

<0.001

1

1.06

1.04, 1.07

Duration of postmenopause (bilateral oophorectomy)

0.045

0.009

<0.001

1

1.05

1.03, 1.06

Benign breast disease

0.287

0.719

0.69

1

1.33

0.33, 5.45

Benign breast disease × age at menarche

0.091

0.029

0.002

1

1.10

1.03, 1.16

Benign breast disease × duration premenopause

-0.018

0.014

0.18

1

0.98

0.96, 1.01

Benign breast disease × duration postmenopause

-0.029

0.008

0.001

1

0.97

0.96, 0.99

Duration of estrogen use

0.032

0.009

<0.001

10

1.38

1.15, 1.64

Duration of estrogen plus progestin use

0.068

0.014

<0.001

10

1.97

1.50, 2.60

Duration of other PMH use

0.032

0.013

0.012

10

1.38

1.07, 1.78

Current PMH use

0.110

0.087

0.21

1

1.12

0.94, 1.32

Past PMH use

-0.022

0.080

0.78

1

0.98

0.84, 1.14

Average BMI premenopause or postmenopause while on PMH × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH)

-0.0011

0.0003

<0.001

370b

0.67

0.54, 0.83

Average BMI postmenopause while not on PMH × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH)

0.0023

0.0007

0.002

200c

1.58

1.20, 2.08

Height × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH)

0.00072

0.00041

0.072

222d

1.17

0.98, 1.40

Height × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH)

0

0.0016

1

120e

1.00

0.69, 1.46

Cumulative alcohol consumption before menopause, grams

0.00034

0.0001

0.001

384f

1.14

1.06, 1.23

Cumulative alcohol consumption after menopause while on PMH

-0.00036

0.00045

0.43

120g

0.96

0.86, 1.06

Cumulative alcohol consumption postmenopause while not on PMH

0.00008

0.00034

0.81

240h

1.02

0.87, 1.20

Family history of breast cancer

0.446

0.072

<0.001

1

1.56

1.36, 1.80

Loge estradiol

0.477

0.092

<0.001

1

1.61

1.35, 1.93

  1. a0 for nulliparous women.
  2. bComparing BMI = 20 versus BMI = 30 for 37 premenopausal years (age at menarche = 13, age at menopause = 50).
  3. cComparing BMI = 20 versus BMI = 30 for 20 postmenopausal years (age at menopause = 50, age = 70).
  4. dComparing height = 61 inches versus height = 67 inches for 37 premenopausal years (age at menarche = 13, age at menopause = 50).
  5. eComparing height = 61 inches versus height = 67 inches for 20 postmenopausal years (age at menopause = 50, age = 70).
  6. fComparing 1 drink per day (12 g) versus no intake for 32 premenopausal years (from age 18 to age 50).
  7. gComparing 1 drink per day (12 g) versus no intake for 10 years of PMH use.
  8. hComparing 1 drink per day (12 g) versus no intake for 20 postmenopausal years (age at menopause = 50, age = 70).
  9. iBased on an average of five imputations.
  10. BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; PMH, postmenopausal hormone; RR, relative risk; SE, standard error.