Table 1 Summary of results with 95% bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals
From: Breast cancer tumor growth estimated through mammography screening data
With supposed higher background incidence due to increased hormone therapy use (+21%) | Combined estimate (50 to 69 years) with non-adjusted background incidence | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Women aged 50 to 59 years | Women aged 60 to 69 years | Combined estimate (50 to 69 years) | ||
Time taken from 10 mm to 20 mm (years) | ||||
Mean | 1.4 (1.1, 1.5) | 2.1 (1.8, 2.4) | 1.7 (1.5, 1.8) | 2.0 (1.8, 2.2) |
Standard deviation | 1.9 (1.7, 2.2) | 2.4 (2.1, 2.7) | 2.2 (2.0, 2.4) | 2.7 (2.5, 2.9) |
Volume doubling time at 15 mm (days) | ||||
25th percentile | 29 (19, 36) | 65 (47, 79) | 41 (32, 48) | 29 (21, 35) |
50th percentile | 73 (56, 86) | 143 (116, 165) | 99 (84, 111) | 94 (77, 107) |
75th percentile | 180 (148, 205) | 308 (253, 352) | 234 (204, 259) | 287 (243, 322) |
Screening test sensitivity | ||||
5 mm | 29 (21, 36) | 24 (18, 30) | 26 (22, 31) | 26 (22, 31) |
10 mm | 92 (88, 99) | 91 (86, 98) | 91 (88, 96) | 91 (87, 96) |
Indicators of potential screening efficacy | ||||
Mean sojourn time (years) | 2.3 (2.0, 2.6) | 3.5 (3.1, 3.9) | 2.8 (2.6, 3.1) | 3.4 (3.1, 3.6) |
Proportion of tumors visible on screening | 0.95 (0.94, 0.96) | 0.95 (0.95, 0.96) | 0.95 (0.95, 0.96) | 0.95 (0.95, 0.96) |