Table 2 Estimates from formal overdiagnosis modelling, Swedish Two-county Trial data, ages 40 to 74 years
Quantity | Estimate | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
Incidence (true cases)/1000 (I) | 2.2 | (2.0–2.4) |
Screening test sensitivity (S) as % | 99.9 | (99.6–100) |
Progression to clinical cancer (λ) | 0.34 | (0.31–0.38) |
Incidence of overdiagnosed cases/1000 (μ) | 0.0038 | (0.0001–0.0011) |
Percent overdiagnosis (first screen) | 3.1 | (0.1–10.9) |
Percent overdiagnosis (second screen) | 0.3 | (0.1–1.0) |
Percent overdiagnosis (third screen) | 0.3 | (0.1–1.0) |